HarrisDemocratic18.5%357TrumpRepublican80.3%1,546KennedyIndependent1.1%22
R+61.7- Lead
- 1,189
- Total
- 1,926
- vs nation
- R+60.3
- Turnout
- 63.6%
Akashiccounty
Hardin County, IL
Contests in this Place (89 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 63.6% of 3,072 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic20.8%449TrumpRepublican78.2%1,691JorgensenLibertarian0.6%14
R+57.4- Lead
- 1,242
- Total
- 2,162
- vs nation
- R+61.9
- Turnout
- 76.9%
ClintonDemocratic19.6%420TrumpRepublican77.0%1,653JohnsonLibertarian2.1%46
R+57.4- Lead
- 1,233
- Total
- 2,148
- vs nation
- R+59.5
- Turnout
- 62.7%
ObamaDemocratic31.8%742RomneyRepublican65.9%1,535JOHNSONLibertarian1.3%31
R+34.0- Lead
- 793
- Total
- 2,330
- vs nation
- R+37.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic39.6%892McCainRepublican59.0%1,330OtherAll other candidates1.5%33
R+19.4- Lead
- 438
- Total
- 2,255
- vs nation
- R+26.7
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic37.9%923BushRepublican61.6%1,501OtherAll other candidates0.5%13
R+23.7- Lead
- 578
- Total
- 2,437
- vs nation
- R+21.3
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic44.9%1,184BushRepublican51.8%1,366NaderGreen1.6%41
R+6.9- Lead
- 182
- Total
- 2,637
- vs nation
- R+7.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic50.6%1,323DoleRepublican30.2%790PerotReform18.5%485
D+20.4- Lead
- 533
- Total
- 2,617
- vs nation
- D+11.8
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+61.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 3,6052024 5-year
- Population density
- 20 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 177 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $54,2712024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.4%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 0.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+21.4 in 1992MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Benton County, MO · twin score 90.0
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 63.6%1,954 participants ÷ 3,072 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +22.1 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- -0.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 41.5%–48.3%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,954 | 3,072 ± 126 | 63.6% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 1,727 | 3,149 ± 156 | 54.8% | Audited | A/A |
| 2,560 | 3,329 ± 155 | 76.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 1,788 | 3,302 ± 140 | 54.1% | Audited | A/A |
| 2,148 | 3,427 ± 153 | 62.7% | Audited | C/A | |
| 2,330 | 3,438 | 67.8% | Derived | — | |
| 2,255 | 3,593 | 62.8% | Derived | — | |
| 2,437 | 3,748 extrapolated | 65.0% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 148/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Hardin County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Hardin County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
JB Pritzker0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 12 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 1,501 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -MONROEMONROE | 62 | 288 | 10 | 360 | 17.2% | 80.0% | R+62.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -CAVE IN ROCKCAVE IN ROCK | 54 | 280 | 5 | 339 | 15.9% | 82.6% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -MCFARLANMCFARLAN | 53 | 265 | 7 | 325 | 16.3% | 81.5% | R+65.2 |
| Precinct -STONE CHURCHSTONE CHURCH | 59 | 224 | 5 | 288 | 20.5% | 77.8% | R+57.3 |
| Precinct -ROCKROCK | 42 | 139 | 8 | 189 | 22.2% | 73.5% | R+51.3 |
| CAVE-IN-ROCK 7 Voting District17_1706900701 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MCFARLAN 6 Voting District17_1706900601 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| MONROE 2 Voting District17_1706900201 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Precinct -WEST ROSICLAREWEST ROSICLARE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| ROCK 1 Voting District17_1706900101 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| STONE CHURCH 5 Voting District17_1706900501 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| W ROSICLARE 3 Voting District17_1706900301 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Hardin County, IL · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
55.3%
1,639 votes · D+10.6
Runner-up · William J. Bryan, 1896 · 53.3%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
80.3%
1,546 votes · R+61.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 78.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
1,984votes
49.5% of the vote · R+0.6
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1940 · 1,974 votes
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
2,333votes
53.8% of the vote · R+8.3
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · 2,037 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John W. Davis1924
+24.5pts D vs U.S.
Place R+0.7 · U.S. R+25.2
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · +15.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+61.9pts R vs U.S.
Place R+57.4 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2024 · +60.3 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RPatrick WindhorstState House · 117
Seats representing Hardin County, IL. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 18.4%342 | 81.6%1,520 | 1,862 |
| 2020 | R | 23.1%473 | 76.9%1,571 | 2,044 |
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 3,148 |
| 2018 | 3,419 |
| 2020 | 3,079 |
| 2022 | 3,066 |
| 2024 | 3,022 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −105 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $32,696 in average income, against $62,078 for residents who stayed — 47% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Saline County, IL26
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −7 |
| 2012 | −1 |
| 2013 | −70 |
| 2014 | +7 |
| 2015 | −39 |
| 2016 | −45 |
| 2017 | −27 |
| 2018 | +7 |
| 2019 | −38 |
| 2021 | +54 |
| 2022 | −6 |
| 2023 | +55 |
| 2024 | +3 |
| 2025 | +2 |
Hardin County sits at the southeastern tip of Illinois along the Ohio River, where a sparse, rural population has produced some of the state's widest Republican presidential margins over the past decade.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 21.4 points in 1992 and a Republican high of 61.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.7 points.
A population of 3,605, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $54,271 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Benton County and Hickory County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Benton County
Missouri
90.0twin score
median age2016–2024 trajectory≠ population scale
Hickory County
Missouri
87.7twin score
median age2020–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ French ancestry
Morgan County
Missouri
84.5twin score
2016–2024 trajectory12-yr trend≠ median age
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Hardin County, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/17069/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Hardin County, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Hardin County, Illinois voted Republican by 61.7 points (R+61.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,926 votes cast, 357 went Democratic and 1,546 went Republican.
When did Hardin County, Illinois last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Hardin County, Illinois voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Hardin County, Illinois?
Hardin County, Illinois has a population of 3,605 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Hardin County, Illinois?
Median household income in Hardin County, Illinois is $54,271 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Hardin County, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Hardin County, Illinois from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 26 went Republican.