HarrisDemocratic41.6%8,212TrumpRepublican56.5%11,152KennedyWe The People1.0%204
R+14.9- Lead
- 2,940
- Total
- 19,752
- vs nation
- R+13.4
- Turnout
- 64.3%
Akashiccounty
Muscatine County, IA
Contests in this Place (88 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 64.3% of 30,929 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic45.3%9,372TrumpRepublican52.4%10,823JorgensenLibertarian1.4%293
R+7.0- Lead
- 1,451
- Total
- 20,671
- vs nation
- R+11.5
- Turnout
- 68.0%
ClintonDemocratic42.6%8,368TrumpRepublican48.8%9,584JohnsonLibertarian3.8%748
R+6.2- Lead
- 1,216
- Total
- 19,623
- vs nation
- R+8.3
- Turnout
- 64.2%
ObamaDemocratic57.0%11,323RomneyRepublican41.1%8,168JohnsonLibertarian0.9%177
D+15.9- Lead
- 3,155
- Total
- 19,865
- vs nation
- D+12.0
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic57.1%10,920McCainRepublican41.5%7,929OtherAll other candidates1.4%270
D+15.6- Lead
- 2,991
- Total
- 19,119
- vs nation
- D+8.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic51.0%9,542BushRepublican48.2%9,020OtherAll other candidates0.8%155
D+2.8- Lead
- 522
- Total
- 18,717
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic50.1%8,058BushRepublican46.5%7,483NaderGreen2.3%371
D+3.6- Lead
- 575
- Total
- 16,076
- vs nation
- D+3.1
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic49.9%7,674DoleRepublican38.1%5,858PerotReform11.1%1,705
D+11.8- Lead
- 1,816
- Total
- 15,386
- vs nation
- D+3.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+14.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 42,5592024 5-year
- Population density
- 97 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 437 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $69,3962024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 18.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+26.6 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+50.4 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Tama County, IA · twin score 90.5
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 64.3%19,873 participants ÷ 30,929 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +25.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +4.0 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 39.2%–44.2%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19,873 | 30,929 ± 416 | 64.3% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 13,288 | 30,936 ± 488 | 43.0% | Audited | A/A |
| 20,807 | 30,610 ± 434 | 68.0% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 15,111 | 30,835 ± 365 | 49.0% | Audited | A/A |
| 19,623 | 30,571 ± 367 | 64.2% | Audited | A/A | |
| 19,865 | 30,087 | 66.0% | Derived | — | |
| 19,119 | 29,574 | 64.6% | Derived | — | |
| 18,717 | 29,061 extrapolated | 64.4% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Muscatine County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Muscatine County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Rob Sand0—
Write-in0—
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 25 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
25 precincts · 19,695 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -Bloomington/FRUITLAND 2Bloomington/FRUITLAND 2 | 686 | 1,108 | 19 | 1,813 | 37.8% | 61.1% | R+23.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -Wilton CityWilton City | 554 | 880 | 22 | 1,456 | 38.0% | 60.4% | R+22.4 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 1Muscatine 1 | 625 | 687 | 25 | 1,337 | 46.7% | 51.4% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 6Muscatine 6 | 611 | 675 | 13 | 1,299 | 47.0% | 52.0% | R+4.9 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 2Muscatine 2 | 479 | 567 | 8 | 1,054 | 45.4% | 53.8% | R+8.3 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 9Muscatine 9 | 482 | 551 | 17 | 1,050 | 45.9% | 52.5% | R+6.6 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 7Muscatine 7 | 430 | 541 | 28 | 999 | 43.0% | 54.2% | R+11.1 |
| Precinct -SweetlandSweetland | 312 | 649 | 12 | 973 | 32.1% | 66.7% | R+34.6 |
| Precinct -Fulton/MontpelierFulton/Montpelier | 280 | 661 | 16 | 957 | 29.3% | 69.1% | R+39.8 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 5Muscatine 5 | 443 | 474 | 24 | 941 | 47.1% | 50.4% | R+3.3 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 10Muscatine 10 | 388 | 461 | 20 | 869 | 44.6% | 53.0% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 3Muscatine 3 | 391 | 396 | 16 | 803 | 48.7% | 49.3% | R+0.6 |
| Precinct -Fruitland 1Fruitland 1 | 181 | 551 | 9 | 741 | 24.4% | 74.4% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 8Muscatine 8 | 268 | 449 | 17 | 734 | 36.5% | 61.2% | R+24.7 |
| Precinct -WEST LIBERTY 1WEST LIBERTY 1 | 460 | 241 | 11 | 712 | 64.6% | 33.8% | D+30.8 |
| Precinct -West Liberty 2West Liberty 2 | 394 | 209 | 9 | 612 | 64.4% | 34.2% | D+30.2 |
| Precinct -Muscatine 4Muscatine 4 | 341 | 247 | 16 | 604 | 56.5% | 40.9% | D+15.6 |
| Precinct -WapsieWapsie | 207 | 299 | 5 | 511 | 40.5% | 58.5% | R+18.0 |
| Precinct -PikePike | 128 | 281 | 6 | 415 | 30.8% | 67.7% | R+36.9 |
| Precinct -MOSCOWMOSCOW | 94 | 289 | 8 | 391 | 24.0% | 73.9% | R+49.9 |
| Precinct -Seventy Six/CedarSeventy Six/Cedar | 124 | 248 | 3 | 375 | 33.1% | 66.1% | R+33.1 |
| Precinct -GoshenGoshen | 113 | 180 | 10 | 303 | 37.3% | 59.4% | R+22.1 |
| Precinct -WILTON TWPWILTON TWP | 87 | 201 | 6 | 294 | 29.6% | 68.4% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -LAKELAKE | 79 | 196 | 7 | 282 | 28.0% | 69.5% | R+41.5 |
| Precinct -OronoOrono | 55 | 111 | 4 | 170 | 32.4% | 65.3% | R+32.9 |
presidential history
Party record book
Muscatine County, IA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
59.1%
8,020 votes · D+18.2
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 57.1%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
70.3%
8,115 votes · R+50.4
Runner-up · Herbert Hoover, 1928 · 67.4%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
11,323votes
57.0% of the vote · D+15.9
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 10,920 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
11,152votes
56.5% of the vote · R+14.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 10,823 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Barack Obama2012
+12.0pts D vs U.S.
Place D+15.9 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · Michael Dukakis, 1988 · +8.8 pts
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
+28.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.8 · U.S. D+9.9
Runner-up · Thomas E. Dewey, 1944 · +26.7 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RKerry GruenhagenState Senate · 41
RMark LofgrenState Senate · 48
RBobby KaufmannState House · 82
RTaylor CollinsState House · 95
RMark CisnerosState House · 96
Seats representing Muscatine County, IA. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 2 state senate and 3 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024R+5.7
Presidential vote · 2024R+14.9
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 9.2 points more Republican than the rolls.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
| Year | Total registered | Democratic | Republican | Unaffiliated | Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 28,665 | 8,988 | 8,902 | 10,772 | 3 |
| 2010 | 29,208 | 8,845 | 8,960 | 11,398 | 5 |
| 2012 | 29,928 | 8,708 | 9,001 | 12,205 | 14 |
| 2014 | 29,252 | 8,417 | 8,799 | 11,992 | 44 |
| 2016 | 29,251 | 8,847 | 8,904 | 11,383 | 117 |
| 2018 | 28,639 | 8,507 | 8,381 | 11,569 | 182 |
| 2020 | 29,482 | 9,272 | 9,323 | 10,621 | 266 |
| 2022 | 29,034 | 8,613 | 9,304 | 10,830 | 287 |
| 2024 | 29,194 | 7,973 | 9,627 | 11,264 | 330 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−323 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −3,786 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,754 in average income, against $78,176 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+1.9 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Muscatine County, IA itself (R+14.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Scott County, IA133R+3.9
- Johnson County, IA91D+37.8
- Louisa County, IA82R+40.9
- Cedar County, IA53R+21.7
- Rock Island County, IL48D+9.6
- Linn County, IA30D+9.9
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Scott County, IA132
- Johnson County, IA119
- Louisa County, IA82
- Cedar County, IA63
- Linn County, IA54
- Rock Island County, IL52
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −176 |
| 2012 | −75 |
| 2013 | −162 |
| 2014 | −249 |
| 2015 | −188 |
| 2016 | −318 |
| 2017 | −309 |
| 2018 | −233 |
| 2019 | −412 |
| 2021 | −423 |
| 2022 | −345 |
| 2023 | −289 |
| 2024 | −284 |
| 2025 | −323 |
Muscatine County, anchored by its industrial river city, voted within single digits of the national average as recently as 2008 but has since moved sharply toward Republican margins, reflecting broader rural and working-class realignment across the Iowa River corridor.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 26.6 points in 1912 and a Republican high of 50.4 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.9 points.
A population of 42,559, a 75% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,396 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Tama County and Wapello County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Tama County
Iowa
90.5twin score
12-yr trend2004–2012 trajectory
Wapello County
Iowa
85.8twin score
2004–2012 trajectory12-yr trend
Muskegon County
Michigan
85.6twin score
2000–2012 trajectory≠ Polish ancestry
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Muscatine County, Iowa. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/19139/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Embed this page
A live widget for your site — no API key, attribution built in, CC BY 4.0. All widgets & sizes →
Cities & towns in Muscatine County
Iowa at the ballot boxAll elections →
Frequently asked questions
How did Muscatine County, Iowa vote in 2024?
In 2024, Muscatine County, Iowa voted Republican by 14.9 points (R+14.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 19,752 votes cast, 8,212 went Democratic and 11,152 went Republican.
When did Muscatine County, Iowa last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Muscatine County, Iowa voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Muscatine County, Iowa?
Muscatine County, Iowa has a population of 42,559 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Muscatine County, Iowa?
Median household income in Muscatine County, Iowa is $69,396 — below the national median of $80,734. The Iowa state median is $75,059.
What is the political history of Muscatine County, Iowa?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Muscatine County, Iowa from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican.