Bay County, Michigan: Farm Belt county. In 2024, voted R+15%. Democratic peak: D+43 in 1964.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Farm BeltAkashic typology
- Population
- 103,0082024 5-year
- Median household income
- $61,7632024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 90.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+43 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Columbia County, OR · similarity 0.97
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Bay CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Bay County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +10.6% |
| 1896 | +2.1% |
| 1900 | −11.7% |
| 1904 | −40.1% |
| 1908 | −21.8% |
| 1912 | +3.3% |
| 1916 | −5.4% |
| 1920 | −32.3% |
| 1924 | −39.1% |
| 1928 | −14.0% |
| 1932 | +19.5% |
| 1936 | +20.3% |
| 1940 | +1.0% |
| 1944 | +0.5% |
| 1948 | +3.7% |
| 1952 | −17.4% |
| 1956 | −21.1% |
| 1960 | +4.7% |
| 1964 | +42.8% |
| 1968 | +6.2% |
| 1972 | −3.0% |
| 1976 | +5.6% |
| 1980 | −1.5% |
| 1984 | −7.3% |
| 1988 | +15.3% |
| 1992 | +18.6% |
| 1996 | +23.8% |
| 2000 | +11.8% |
| 2004 | +9.8% |
| 2008 | +15.3% |
| 2012 | +5.5% |
| 2016 | −12.6% |
| 2020 | −11.6% |
| 2024 | −14.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 25,767 | 34,792 | 61,338 | ||
| R | 26,151 | 33,125 | 60,255 | ||
| R | 21,642 | 28,328 | 53,274 | ||
| D | 27,877 | 24,911 | 53,586 | ||
| D | 32,589 | 23,795 | 57,428 | ||
| D | 31,049 | 25,448 | 57,059 | ||
| D | 28,251 | 22,150 | 51,636 | ||
| D | 27,835 | 16,038 | 49,603 | ||
| D | 26,492 | 16,383 | 54,355 | ||
| D | 28,225 | 20,710 | 49,152 | ||
| R | 22,597 | 26,198 | 49,030 | ||
| R | 24,517 | 25,331 | 54,592 | ||
| D | 25,958 | 23,174 | 49,689 | ||
| R | 21,712 | 23,094 | 46,118 | ||
| D | 21,410 | 18,779 | 42,567 | ||
| D | 29,754 | 11,896 | 41,706 | ||
| D | 22,998 | 20,909 | 44,011 | ||
| R | 15,301 | 23,519 | 38,948 | ||
| R | 14,113 | 20,087 | 34,396 | ||
| D | 14,349 | 13,321 | 27,997 | ||
| D | 15,602 | 15,459 | 31,204 | ||
| D | 14,902 | 14,618 | 29,587 | ||
| D | 13,789 | 8,729 | 24,885 | ||
| D | 14,708 | 9,816 | 25,092 | ||
| R | 9,395 | 12,467 | 21,917 | ||
| R | 5,881 | 14,861 | 22,951 | ||
| R | 7,011 | 13,933 | 21,460 | ||
| R | 5,996 | 6,708 | 13,130 | ||
| O | 2,990 | 2,625 | 11,205 | ||
| R | 4,223 | 6,760 | 11,611 | ||
| R | 3,142 | 7,609 | 11,148 | ||
| R | 5,081 | 6,462 | 11,836 | ||
| D | 6,296 | 6,037 | 12,553 | ||
| D | 5,714 | 4,587 | 10,678 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
27.7%
Polish
15.6%
Irish
9.7%
English
8.9%
French
8.1%
American
3.7%
Italian
2.1%
African American
1.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$61,763
Bay County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Bay County$61,763
Michigan$72,875
United States$80,734
Bay County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.3%
Working age (18–64)12.6%
Seniors (65+)12.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.7%
speak English only
Spanish1.1%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 60.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Bay County's blue-collar manufacturing heritage once made it a reliable Democratic anchor on Saginaw Bay, but the county has moved roughly 20 points rightward over the past decade, mirroring broader shifts among working-class voters in the Great Lakes region.
The Republican margin here reached forty points in 1904. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was fifteen points.
A population of 103,008, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $61,763 describe an agricultural county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Columbia County and Lee County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Bay County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26017/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More farm belt counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Bay County, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, Bay County, Michigan voted Republican by 14.7 points (R+15), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 61,338 votes cast, 25,767 went Democratic and 34,792 went Republican.
What is Bay County, Michigan's political typology?
Akashic places Bay County, Michigan in the "Farm Belt" typology — Rural Plains and Midwest farm counties — Republican, with modest recent movement. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 15 times, and other 1 times.
When did Bay County, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Bay County, Michigan voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Bay County, Michigan?
Bay County, Michigan has a population of 103,008 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Bay County, Michigan?
Median household income in Bay County, Michigan is $61,763 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of Bay County, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Bay County, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The county's typology — "Farm Belt" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.