Tuscola County, Michigan: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+43%. Republican peak: R+69 in 1928.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+43MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 52,9802024 5-year
- Median household income
- $63,8112024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 93.1%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 3.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+11 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+69 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carroll County, OH · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Tuscola CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Tuscola County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
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Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −19.3% |
| 1896 | −8.9% |
| 1900 | −26.9% |
| 1904 | −50.2% |
| 1908 | −44.6% |
| 1912 | −17.7% |
| 1916 | −30.3% |
| 1920 | −68.3% |
| 1924 | −68.8% |
| 1928 | −69.3% |
| 1932 | −9.1% |
| 1936 | −22.2% |
| 1940 | −51.2% |
| 1944 | −53.6% |
| 1948 | −49.4% |
| 1952 | −56.5% |
| 1956 | −51.4% |
| 1960 | −38.0% |
| 1964 | +11.0% |
| 1968 | −33.2% |
| 1972 | −37.6% |
| 1976 | −20.5% |
| 1980 | −25.2% |
| 1984 | −40.4% |
| 1988 | −14.3% |
| 1992 | +2.0% |
| 1996 | +5.1% |
| 2000 | −9.6% |
| 2004 | −9.7% |
| 2008 | −0.9% |
| 2012 | −10.8% |
| 2016 | −37.3% |
| 2020 | −39.3% |
| 2024 | −42.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 8,562 | 21,764 | 30,746 | ||
| R | 8,712 | 20,297 | 29,445 | ||
| R | 7,429 | 17,102 | 25,928 | ||
| R | 11,425 | 14,240 | 26,110 | ||
| R | 13,503 | 13,740 | 27,798 | ||
| R | 12,631 | 15,389 | 28,338 | ||
| R | 10,845 | 13,213 | 24,652 | ||
| D | 10,314 | 9,154 | 22,641 | ||
| D | 9,138 | 8,636 | 24,666 | ||
| R | 9,060 | 12,093 | 21,254 | ||
| R | 6,212 | 14,698 | 20,993 | ||
| R | 7,632 | 13,306 | 22,505 | ||
| R | 7,932 | 12,059 | 20,144 | ||
| R | 5,449 | 12,198 | 17,949 | ||
| R | 4,698 | 10,205 | 16,610 | ||
| D | 9,374 | 7,509 | 16,905 | ||
| R | 5,357 | 11,931 | 17,308 | ||
| R | 3,864 | 12,052 | 15,935 | ||
| R | 3,251 | 11,788 | 15,119 | ||
| R | 2,676 | 8,125 | 11,041 | ||
| R | 2,938 | 9,789 | 12,787 | ||
| R | 3,257 | 10,146 | 13,448 | ||
| R | 3,743 | 6,188 | 11,037 | ||
| R | 5,077 | 6,110 | 11,367 | ||
| R | 1,464 | 8,188 | 9,703 | ||
| R | 1,076 | 7,490 | 9,319 | ||
| R | 1,269 | 7,282 | 8,809 | ||
| R | 2,329 | 4,461 | 7,026 | ||
| O | 1,255 | 2,559 | 7,385 | ||
| R | 1,563 | 4,430 | 6,435 | ||
| R | 1,518 | 4,992 | 6,919 | ||
| R | 2,648 | 4,726 | 7,715 | ||
| R | 3,564 | 4,277 | 8,055 | ||
| R | 2,067 | 3,201 | 5,877 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
30.6%
English
12.9%
Irish
11.7%
Polish
9.0%
American
4.8%
French
3.9%
Italian
2.5%
African American
1.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 44.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$63,811
Tuscola County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tuscola County$63,811
Michigan$72,875
United States$80,734
Tuscola County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.8%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.1%
Working age (18–64)12.5%
Seniors (65+)8.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
97.8%
speak English only
Spanish1.1%
Other Indo-European0.9%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.2%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 62.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Tuscola County, anchored by agriculture and small manufacturing in the Thumb region, delivered a 43-point Republican margin in 2024—among the widest gaps in a state defined by its competitive statewide contests.
The Democratic margin here peaked at eleven points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty-three points.
A population of 52,980, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,811 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carroll County and Tuscarawas County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tuscola County, Michigan. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/26157/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Tuscola County, Michigan vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tuscola County, Michigan voted Republican by 42.9 points (R+43), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 30,746 votes cast, 8,562 went Democratic and 21,764 went Republican.
What is Tuscola County, Michigan's political typology?
Akashic places Tuscola County, Michigan in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 3 times, Republican 30 times, and other 1 times.
When did Tuscola County, Michigan last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tuscola County, Michigan voted Democratic was 1996.
How many people live in Tuscola County, Michigan?
Tuscola County, Michigan has a population of 52,980 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tuscola County, Michigan?
Median household income in Tuscola County, Michigan is $63,811 — below the national median of $80,734. The Michigan state median is $72,875.
What is the political history of Tuscola County, Michigan?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tuscola County, Michigan from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 30 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.