Guadalupe County, New Mexico: New American county. In 2024, voted D+1%. Democratic peak: D+44 in 1996.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+1MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- New AmericanAkashic typology
- Population
- 4,3812024 5-year
- Median household income
- $42,7502024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 40.4%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 76.6%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+44 in 1996MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+22 in 1928MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Black Hawk County, IA · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Guadalupe CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Guadalupe County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | No data |
| 1896 | No data |
| 1900 | No data |
| 1904 | No data |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | +6.6% |
| 1916 | +4.6% |
| 1920 | −13.2% |
| 1924 | −10.6% |
| 1928 | −22.2% |
| 1932 | +8.1% |
| 1936 | +10.4% |
| 1940 | +7.1% |
| 1944 | −3.5% |
| 1948 | −0.5% |
| 1952 | −7.8% |
| 1956 | −12.4% |
| 1960 | +12.2% |
| 1964 | +21.8% |
| 1968 | −6.5% |
| 1972 | −3.8% |
| 1976 | +13.5% |
| 1980 | −4.0% |
| 1984 | −2.2% |
| 1988 | +18.0% |
| 1992 | +25.4% |
| 1996 | +44.5% |
| 2000 | +32.0% |
| 2004 | +18.8% |
| 2008 | +42.7% |
| 2012 | +43.6% |
| 2016 | +20.5% |
| 2020 | +14.5% |
| 2024 | +0.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 959 | 945 | 1,938 | ||
| D | 1,234 | 917 | 2,189 | ||
| D | 970 | 595 | 1,827 | ||
| D | 1,488 | 557 | 2,135 | ||
| D | 1,557 | 620 | 2,196 | ||
| D | 1,340 | 914 | 2,267 | ||
| D | 1,076 | 548 | 1,651 | ||
| D | 1,208 | 436 | 1,736 | ||
| D | 1,225 | 691 | 2,102 | ||
| D | 1,243 | 861 | 2,119 | ||
| R | 946 | 990 | 1,966 | ||
| R | 980 | 1,065 | 2,145 | ||
| D | 1,379 | 1,047 | 2,453 | ||
| R | 1,202 | 1,297 | 2,525 | ||
| R | 1,027 | 1,176 | 2,287 | ||
| D | 1,649 | 1,058 | 2,713 | ||
| D | 1,589 | 1,242 | 2,834 | ||
| R | 1,191 | 1,529 | 2,723 | ||
| R | 1,347 | 1,575 | 2,922 | ||
| R | 1,550 | 1,565 | 3,115 | ||
| R | 1,539 | 1,649 | 3,188 | ||
| D | 2,082 | 1,807 | 3,889 | ||
| D | 2,187 | 1,775 | 3,966 | ||
| D | 1,909 | 1,621 | 3,542 | ||
| R | 1,093 | 1,718 | 2,811 | ||
| R | 1,056 | 1,329 | 2,564 | ||
| R | 1,224 | 1,599 | 2,840 | ||
| D | 1,172 | 1,067 | 2,275 | ||
| D | 761 | 651 | 1,662 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
7.5%
English
3.6%
American
3.3%
Italian
2.0%
Irish
1.4%
French
0.7%
African American
1.5%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$42,750
Guadalupe County ranks in the bottom 10% of US counties.
Guadalupe County$42,750
New Mexico$64,059
United States$80,734
Guadalupe County ranks in the bottom 10% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
25.5%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1827.4%
Working age (18–64)21.0%
Seniors (65+)57.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
53.8%
speak English only
Spanish44.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.5%
Other languages0.2%
Other Indo-European0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 42.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Guadalupe County, anchored by the small city of Santa Rosa along old Route 66, is a rural, majority-Hispanic community where the 2024 presidential contest separated the candidates by fewer than 35 votes.
Guadalupe County has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections, reaching a Democratic margin of forty-four points in 1996. Between 2020 and 2024 it moved fourteen points toward the Republican candidate — part of the sharpest rightward shift recorded among any group of places in the country.
Its demographics describe the shift: a 40% non-Hispanic-white share, a median household income of $42,750, and a population of 4,381. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Black Hawk County and Lake County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Guadalupe County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35019/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions
How did Guadalupe County, New Mexico vote in 2024?
In 2024, Guadalupe County, New Mexico voted Democratic by 0.7 points (D+1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,938 votes cast, 959 went Democratic and 945 went Republican.
What is Guadalupe County, New Mexico's political typology?
Akashic places Guadalupe County, New Mexico in the "New American" typology — Communities where a large share of households speak a language other than English — multilingual, Democratic-leaning overall, yet the hardest-swinging bloc toward the Republican Party in 2024. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 11 times, and other 0 times.
When did Guadalupe County, New Mexico last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Guadalupe County, New Mexico voted Republican was 1984.
How many people live in Guadalupe County, New Mexico?
Guadalupe County, New Mexico has a population of 4,381 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Guadalupe County, New Mexico?
Median household income in Guadalupe County, New Mexico is $42,750 — below the national median of $80,734. The New Mexico state median is $64,059.
What is the political history of Guadalupe County, New Mexico?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Guadalupe County, New Mexico from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 11 went Republican. The county's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.