Ashtabula County, Ohio: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+28%. Republican peak: R+62 in 1904.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+28MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 97,1672024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,7282024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 88.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 3.8%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 5.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+29 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+62 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Henderson County, IL · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Ashtabula CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Ashtabula County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −36.1% |
| 1896 | −37.3% |
| 1900 | −44.5% |
| 1904 | −61.9% |
| 1908 | −35.8% |
| 1912 | +7.9% |
| 1916 | −10.3% |
| 1920 | −42.9% |
| 1924 | −59.2% |
| 1928 | −51.4% |
| 1932 | −15.1% |
| 1936 | +1.5% |
| 1940 | −12.3% |
| 1944 | −12.7% |
| 1948 | −10.0% |
| 1952 | −22.5% |
| 1956 | −29.4% |
| 1960 | −7.8% |
| 1964 | +29.3% |
| 1968 | −0.9% |
| 1972 | −20.0% |
| 1976 | +10.4% |
| 1980 | −6.1% |
| 1984 | −5.6% |
| 1988 | +7.5% |
| 1992 | +13.0% |
| 1996 | +15.6% |
| 2000 | +4.8% |
| 2004 | +6.7% |
| 2008 | +13.5% |
| 2012 | +12.6% |
| 2016 | −18.5% |
| 2020 | −23.5% |
| 2024 | −28.3% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 15,345 | 27,656 | 43,575 | ||
| R | 16,497 | 26,890 | 44,147 | ||
| R | 15,577 | 23,318 | 41,797 | ||
| D | 23,803 | 18,298 | 43,745 | ||
| D | 25,027 | 18,949 | 45,076 | ||
| D | 24,060 | 21,038 | 45,407 | ||
| D | 19,831 | 17,940 | 39,472 | ||
| D | 19,341 | 13,287 | 38,722 | ||
| D | 18,843 | 13,254 | 43,028 | ||
| D | 20,536 | 17,654 | 38,556 | ||
| R | 19,344 | 21,669 | 41,397 | ||
| R | 17,363 | 19,847 | 40,467 | ||
| D | 20,883 | 16,885 | 38,625 | ||
| R | 15,052 | 22,762 | 38,608 | ||
| R | 16,738 | 17,058 | 36,555 | ||
| D | 24,104 | 13,183 | 37,287 | ||
| R | 19,155 | 22,406 | 41,561 | ||
| R | 13,195 | 24,165 | 37,360 | ||
| R | 14,676 | 23,185 | 37,861 | ||
| R | 12,560 | 15,389 | 28,326 | ||
| R | 13,319 | 17,181 | 30,500 | ||
| R | 14,454 | 18,491 | 32,945 | ||
| D | 14,468 | 14,025 | 30,010 | ||
| R | 11,386 | 15,644 | 28,282 | ||
| R | 5,951 | 18,870 | 25,118 | ||
| R | 2,135 | 14,767 | 21,337 | ||
| R | 5,413 | 14,099 | 20,229 | ||
| R | 5,306 | 6,608 | 12,626 | ||
| O | 3,181 | 2,214 | 12,308 | ||
| R | 3,572 | 8,213 | 12,970 | ||
| R | 1,647 | 8,906 | 11,735 | ||
| R | 3,438 | 9,272 | 13,115 | ||
| R | 3,840 | 8,557 | 12,639 | ||
| R | 2,769 | 6,419 | 10,098 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.1%
English
15.0%
Irish
14.3%
Italian
10.6%
American
7.2%
Polish
4.1%
Scottish
1.9%
African American
3.0%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$57,728
Ashtabula County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Ashtabula County$57,728
Ohio$71,389
United States$80,734
Ashtabula County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
17.6%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1826.1%
Working age (18–64)15.3%
Seniors (65+)13.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
92.1%
speak English only
Other Indo-European5.0%
Spanish2.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Other languages0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 63.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Once a Democratic stronghold anchored by union labor in its steel and chemical industries, Ashtabula County has shifted more than 40 margin points toward Republicans since 2004, tracing a pattern common across deindustrialized Great Lakes communities.
The Democratic margin here peaked at twenty-nine points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was twenty-eight points.
A population of 97,167, a 89% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,728 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Henderson County and Chickasaw County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Ashtabula County, Ohio. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/39007/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Ashtabula County, Ohio vote in 2024?
In 2024, Ashtabula County, Ohio voted Republican by 28.3 points (R+28), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 43,575 votes cast, 15,345 went Democratic and 27,656 went Republican.
What is Ashtabula County, Ohio's political typology?
Akashic places Ashtabula County, Ohio in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 10 times, Republican 23 times, and other 1 times.
When did Ashtabula County, Ohio last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Ashtabula County, Ohio voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Ashtabula County, Ohio?
Ashtabula County, Ohio has a population of 97,167 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Ashtabula County, Ohio?
Median household income in Ashtabula County, Ohio is $57,728 — below the national median of $80,734. The Ohio state median is $71,389.
What is the political history of Ashtabula County, Ohio?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Ashtabula County, Ohio from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 10 went Democratic and 23 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.