Trumbull County, Ohio: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+17%. Republican peak: R+61 in 1924.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+17MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 200,9292024 5-year
- Median household income
- $56,4352024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 85.2%2024 5-year
- Black
- 8.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+34 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+61 in 1924MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Des Moines County, IA · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Trumbull CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Trumbull County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | −26.6% |
| 1896 | −34.0% |
| 1900 | −34.3% |
| 1904 | −48.8% |
| 1908 | −20.8% |
| 1912 | +6.3% |
| 1916 | −0.6% |
| 1920 | −41.7% |
| 1924 | −61.0% |
| 1928 | −52.6% |
| 1932 | −12.0% |
| 1936 | +30.8% |
| 1940 | +16.1% |
| 1944 | +15.4% |
| 1948 | +18.6% |
| 1952 | +1.7% |
| 1956 | −14.3% |
| 1960 | +7.1% |
| 1964 | +33.5% |
| 1968 | +8.8% |
| 1972 | −14.5% |
| 1976 | +18.8% |
| 1980 | +3.6% |
| 1984 | +10.9% |
| 1988 | +20.2% |
| 1992 | +26.7% |
| 1996 | +32.5% |
| 2000 | +23.9% |
| 2004 | +23.8% |
| 2008 | +22.4% |
| 2012 | +22.8% |
| 2016 | −6.2% |
| 2020 | −10.6% |
| 2024 | −16.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 39,758 | 55,983 | 97,096 | ||
| R | 44,519 | 55,194 | 101,001 | ||
| R | 43,014 | 49,024 | 97,700 | ||
| D | 61,672 | 38,279 | 102,723 | ||
| D | 64,145 | 40,164 | 107,271 | ||
| D | 66,673 | 40,977 | 108,145 | ||
| D | 57,643 | 34,654 | 96,239 | ||
| D | 55,604 | 24,811 | 94,745 | ||
| D | 54,591 | 25,831 | 107,606 | ||
| D | 58,674 | 38,815 | 98,250 | ||
| D | 56,902 | 45,623 | 103,259 | ||
| D | 44,366 | 41,056 | 93,002 | ||
| D | 53,828 | 36,469 | 92,544 | ||
| R | 35,278 | 47,680 | 85,266 | ||
| D | 40,365 | 33,076 | 82,760 | ||
| D | 54,342 | 27,059 | 81,401 | ||
| D | 46,928 | 40,724 | 87,652 | ||
| R | 32,913 | 43,936 | 76,849 | ||
| D | 39,062 | 37,793 | 76,855 | ||
| D | 37,097 | 25,297 | 63,392 | ||
| D | 34,312 | 25,150 | 59,462 | ||
| D | 34,615 | 25,026 | 59,641 | ||
| D | 32,384 | 16,887 | 50,329 | ||
| R | 17,871 | 23,029 | 42,913 | ||
| R | 9,110 | 29,710 | 39,194 | ||
| R | 4,007 | 22,341 | 30,049 | ||
| R | 6,815 | 17,343 | 25,259 | ||
| R | 6,091 | 6,167 | 13,080 | ||
| O | 3,347 | 2,633 | 11,375 | ||
| R | 4,476 | 6,978 | 12,031 | ||
| R | 2,110 | 7,383 | 10,799 | ||
| R | 3,686 | 7,723 | 11,753 | ||
| R | 3,829 | 7,867 | 11,878 | ||
| R | 3,217 | 5,819 | 9,788 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
17.5%
German
15.3%
Irish
11.3%
Italian
10.4%
English
9.4%
Polish
3.0%
Scottish
1.9%
African American
6.6%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 43.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$56,435
Trumbull County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Trumbull County$56,435
Ohio$71,389
United States$80,734
Trumbull County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.6%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1826.1%
Working age (18–64)14.7%
Seniors (65+)9.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
95.3%
speak English only
Other Indo-European3.5%
Spanish0.7%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Other languages0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Trumbull County in northeast Ohio's Mahoning Valley has swung more than 40 points toward Republicans over the past two decades, making it one of the most dramatic realignment stories among Rust Belt counties with a strong union-manufacturing heritage.
The Democratic margin here peaked at thirty-four points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved six points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was seventeen points.
A population of 200,929, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $56,435 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Des Moines County and Mower County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Trumbull County, Ohio. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/39155/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Trumbull County, Ohio vote in 2024?
In 2024, Trumbull County, Ohio voted Republican by 16.7 points (R+17), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 97,096 votes cast, 39,758 went Democratic and 55,983 went Republican.
What is Trumbull County, Ohio's political typology?
Akashic places Trumbull County, Ohio in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 15 times, and other 1 times.
When did Trumbull County, Ohio last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Trumbull County, Ohio voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Trumbull County, Ohio?
Trumbull County, Ohio has a population of 200,929 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Trumbull County, Ohio?
Median household income in Trumbull County, Ohio is $56,435 — below the national median of $80,734. The Ohio state median is $71,389.
What is the political history of Trumbull County, Ohio?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Trumbull County, Ohio from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 15 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.