Rutherford County, Tennessee
Precinct data
Results by precinct
33 precincts · 147,656 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -9-19-1 | 3,230 | 7,045 | 160 | 10,435 | 31.0% | 67.5% | R+36.6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -8-18-1 | 2,574 | 7,041 | 120 | 9,735 | 26.4% | 72.3% | R+45.9 |
| Precinct -19-119-1 | 3,442 | 5,961 | 129 | 9,532 | 36.1% | 62.5% | R+26.4 |
| Precinct -14-214-2 | 2,927 | 5,115 | 136 | 8,178 | 35.8% | 62.5% | R+26.8 |
| Precinct -7-17-1 | 3,154 | 4,531 | 114 | 7,799 | 40.4% | 58.1% | R+17.7 |
| Precinct -6-26-2 | 2,166 | 5,197 | 91 | 7,454 | 29.1% | 69.7% | R+40.7 |
| Precinct -4-14-1 | 2,379 | 4,440 | 99 | 6,918 | 34.4% | 64.2% | R+29.8 |
| Precinct -20-120-1 | 2,827 | 3,801 | 114 | 6,742 | 41.9% | 56.4% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -3-23-2 | 2,177 | 4,464 | 96 | 6,737 | 32.3% | 66.3% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -2-12-1 | 1,591 | 4,917 | 72 | 6,580 | 24.2% | 74.7% | R+50.5 |
| Precinct -13-113-1 | 2,707 | 3,630 | 84 | 6,421 | 42.2% | 56.5% | R+14.4 |
| Precinct -15-115-1 | 2,125 | 2,997 | 90 | 5,212 | 40.8% | 57.5% | R+16.7 |
| Precinct -21-221-2 | 2,189 | 2,250 | 69 | 4,508 | 48.6% | 49.9% | R+1.4 |
| Precinct -1-11-1 | 2,545 | 1,821 | 56 | 4,422 | 57.6% | 41.2% | D+16.4 |
| Precinct -5-15-1 | 2,243 | 2,007 | 61 | 4,311 | 52.0% | 46.6% | D+5.5 |
| Precinct -10-210-2 | 1,638 | 2,250 | 58 | 3,946 | 41.5% | 57.0% | R+15.5 |
| Precinct -18-218-2 | 1,557 | 2,313 | 68 | 3,938 | 39.5% | 58.7% | R+19.2 |
| Precinct -17-117-1 | 2,044 | 1,459 | 60 | 3,563 | 57.4% | 40.9% | D+16.4 |
| Precinct -15-215-2 | 1,279 | 2,219 | 39 | 3,537 | 36.2% | 62.7% | R+26.6 |
| Precinct -10-110-1 | 1,546 | 1,811 | 58 | 3,415 | 45.3% | 53.0% | R+7.8 |
| Precinct -12-112-1 | 1,444 | 1,780 | 63 | 3,287 | 43.9% | 54.2% | R+10.2 |
| Precinct -11-211-2 | 1,488 | 1,672 | 55 | 3,215 | 46.3% | 52.0% | R+5.7 |
| Precinct -16-216-2 | 1,288 | 1,576 | 45 | 2,909 | 44.3% | 54.2% | R+9.9 |
| Precinct -11-111-1 | 1,156 | 1,333 | 33 | 2,522 | 45.8% | 52.9% | R+7.0 |
| Precinct -2-22-2 | 669 | 1,633 | 27 | 2,329 | 28.7% | 70.1% | R+41.4 |
| Precinct -16-116-1 | 1,125 | 805 | 56 | 1,986 | 56.6% | 40.5% | D+16.1 |
| Precinct -6-16-1 | 410 | 1,529 | 17 | 1,956 | 21.0% | 78.2% | R+57.2 |
| Precinct -21-121-1 | 758 | 799 | 31 | 1,588 | 47.7% | 50.3% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -12-212-2 | 496 | 994 | 23 | 1,513 | 32.8% | 65.7% | R+32.9 |
| Precinct -18-118-1 | 980 | 486 | 36 | 1,502 | 65.2% | 32.4% | D+32.9 |
| Precinct -14-114-1 | 267 | 330 | 17 | 614 | 43.5% | 53.7% | R+10.3 |
| Precinct -4-24-2 | 169 | 294 | 6 | 469 | 36.0% | 62.7% | R+26.7 |
| Precinct -3-13-1 | 66 | 311 | 6 | 383 | 17.2% | 81.2% | R+64.0 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +24.7% |
| 1896 | +20.4% |
| 1900 | +26.9% |
| 1904 | +29.7% |
| 1908 | +38.5% |
| 1912 | +44.1% |
| 1916 | +45.0% |
| 1920 | +28.8% |
| 1924 | +51.1% |
| 1928 | +19.4% |
| 1932 | +72.9% |
| 1936 | +74.8% |
| 1940 | +68.4% |
| 1944 | +68.3% |
| 1948 | +54.2% |
| 1952 | +35.8% |
| 1956 | +40.6% |
| 1960 | +17.0% |
| 1964 | +40.2% |
| 1968 | +4.5% |
| 1972 | −31.0% |
| 1976 | +30.0% |
| 1980 | +14.6% |
| 1984 | −25.1% |
| 1988 | −24.9% |
| 1992 | +4.7% |
| 1996 | −3.4% |
| 2000 | −9.8% |
| 2004 | −24.3% |
| 2008 | −19.1% |
| 2012 | −24.7% |
| 2016 | −25.9% |
| 2020 | −15.4% |
| 2024 | −21.8% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 167,336 |
| 2018 | 173,083 |
| 2020 | 195,784 |
| 2022 | 206,024 |
| 2024 | 224,630 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+2,388 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +66,945 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,323 in average income, against $82,994 for residents who stayed — 26% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+4.1 on average — 18 points more Democratic-leaning than Rutherford County, TN itself (R+21.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Davidson County, TN3,236D+27.4
- Williamson County, TN600R+32.4
- Wilson County, TN449R+40.1
- Bedford County, TN344R+58.0
- Shelby County, TN242D+25.4
- Sumner County, TN237R+41.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Davidson County, TN2,412
- Wilson County, TN592
- Bedford County, TN458
- Coffee County, TN444
- Williamson County, TN407
- Montgomery County, TN265
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +2,859 |
| 2012 | +2,759 |
| 2013 | +4,107 |
| 2014 | +4,832 |
| 2015 | +6,503 |
| 2016 | +6,572 |
| 2017 | +6,511 |
| 2018 | +5,525 |
| 2019 | +5,039 |
| 2021 | +6,479 |
| 2022 | +7,103 |
| 2023 | +3,462 |
| 2024 | +2,806 |
| 2025 | +2,388 |
Rutherford County's population has surged past 180,000 as exurban sprawl extends southeast from Nashville, making it one of Tennessee's most consequential swing-to-solid counties — Republican presidential margins have widened even as the newcomer population diversifies.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 74.8 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 31.0 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 21.8 points.
A population of 360,646, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,470 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Berkeley County and York County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Rutherford County, Tennessee. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/47149/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.