Baxter County, Arkansas
Precinct data
Results by precinct
11 precincts · 20,954 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -1111 | 437 | 1,677 | 41 | 2,155 | 20.3% | 77.8% | R+57.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -0202 | 333 | 1,761 | 35 | 2,129 | 15.6% | 82.7% | R+67.1 |
| Precinct -0303 | 393 | 1,641 | 40 | 2,074 | 18.9% | 79.1% | R+60.2 |
| Precinct -0101 | 398 | 1,628 | 31 | 2,057 | 19.3% | 79.1% | R+59.8 |
| Precinct -0909 | 415 | 1,585 | 31 | 2,031 | 20.4% | 78.0% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -0808 | 399 | 1,526 | 32 | 1,957 | 20.4% | 78.0% | R+57.6 |
| Precinct -0707 | 472 | 1,424 | 18 | 1,914 | 24.7% | 74.4% | R+49.7 |
| Precinct -0606 | 417 | 1,435 | 30 | 1,882 | 22.2% | 76.2% | R+54.1 |
| Precinct -0404 | 368 | 1,295 | 38 | 1,701 | 21.6% | 76.1% | R+54.5 |
| Precinct -1010 | 294 | 1,215 | 37 | 1,546 | 19.0% | 78.6% | R+59.6 |
| Precinct -0505 | 415 | 1,066 | 27 | 1,508 | 27.5% | 70.7% | R+43.2 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +47.8% |
| 1896 | +57.7% |
| 1900 | +43.0% |
| 1904 | +27.7% |
| 1908 | +31.5% |
| 1912 | +39.6% |
| 1916 | +48.4% |
| 1920 | +17.7% |
| 1924 | +30.7% |
| 1928 | +13.6% |
| 1932 | +67.4% |
| 1936 | +34.5% |
| 1940 | +27.3% |
| 1944 | +16.3% |
| 1948 | +31.0% |
| 1952 | +0.0% |
| 1956 | −8.5% |
| 1960 | −10.7% |
| 1964 | +18.7% |
| 1968 | −21.1% |
| 1972 | −42.6% |
| 1976 | −1.0% |
| 1980 | −32.3% |
| 1984 | −40.7% |
| 1988 | −28.0% |
| 1992 | +8.6% |
| 1996 | −1.1% |
| 2000 | −18.1% |
| 2004 | −21.6% |
| 2008 | −31.6% |
| 2012 | −44.0% |
| 2016 | −54.5% |
| 2020 | −53.3% |
| 2024 | −56.8% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 18.9%2,940 | 78.3%12,207 | 15,590 |
| 2020 | R | 0.0%0 | 78.9%16,094 | 20,386 |
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 29,640 |
| 2020 | 30,115 |
| 2022 | 30,233 |
| 2024 | 30,823 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+625 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +7,187 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $55,936 in average income, against $66,087 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+48.8 on average — 8.1 points more Democratic-leaning than Baxter County, AR itself (R+56.8).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Marion County, AR160R+60.2
- Izard County, AR34R+65.9
- Fulton County, AR33R+62.1
- Craighead County, AR31R+37.4
- Washington County, AR30R+6.7
- Ozark County, MO29R+70.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Marion County, AR161
- Washington County, AR43
- Fulton County, AR35
- Izard County, AR35
- Benton County, AR30
- Greene County, MO20
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +194 |
| 2012 | +100 |
| 2013 | +232 |
| 2014 | +220 |
| 2015 | +484 |
| 2016 | +322 |
| 2017 | +499 |
| 2018 | +644 |
| 2019 | +656 |
| 2021 | +1,042 |
| 2022 | +779 |
| 2023 | +814 |
| 2024 | +576 |
| 2025 | +625 |
Baxter County sits in the northern Arkansas highlands, where a predominantly white, rural population has delivered Republican presidential margins exceeding 55 points in recent cycles, making it among the state's most reliably one-sided counties.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 67.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 56.8 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 56.8 points.
A population of 42,407, a 92% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $48,452 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Montgomery County and Cumberland County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Baxter County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05005/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.