HarrisDemocratic20.2%664TrumpRepublican77.8%2,563KennedyIndependent1.2%40
R+57.7- Lead
- 1,899
- Total
- 3,294
- vs nation
- R+56.2
- Turnout
- 68.0%
Akashiccounty
Menifee County, KY
Contests in this Place (87 available)
President34 · 1892–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1892–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.0% of 4,919 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic24.2%750TrumpRepublican74.5%2,311JorgensenLibertarian0.8%24
R+50.3- Lead
- 1,561
- Total
- 3,102
- vs nation
- R+54.8
- Turnout
- 61.5%
ClintonDemocratic25.2%700TrumpRepublican72.3%2,010JohnsonLibertarian1.5%43
R+47.1- Lead
- 1,310
- Total
- 2,779
- vs nation
- R+49.2
- Turnout
- 57.8%
ObamaDemocratic40.3%1,048RomneyRepublican57.1%1,484OtherAll other candidates2.5%66
R+16.8- Lead
- 436
- Total
- 2,598
- vs nation
- R+20.6
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic51.3%1,276McCainRepublican46.4%1,155OtherAll other candidates2.3%58
D+4.9- Lead
- 121
- Total
- 2,489
- vs nation
- R+2.4
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic50.8%1,284BushRepublican48.1%1,215OtherAll other candidates1.1%29
D+2.7- Lead
- 69
- Total
- 2,528
- vs nation
- D+5.2
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic46.2%1,038BushRepublican52.0%1,170NaderGreen0.8%19
R+5.9- Lead
- 132
- Total
- 2,249
- vs nation
- R+6.4
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic55.0%979DoleRepublican34.1%608PerotReform10.1%179
D+20.8- Lead
- 371
- Total
- 1,781
- vs nation
- D+12.3
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+57.7MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 6,2302024 5-year
- Population density
- 31 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 204 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $45,0962024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 95.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 2.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+54.4 in 1976MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+57.7 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Dickenson County, VA · twin score 96.1
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 68.0%3,345 participants ÷ 4,919 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.3 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -7.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 55.7%–62.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,345 | 4,919 ± 237 | 68.0% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 2,370 | 4,811 ± 232 | 49.3% | Audited | A/A |
| 3,139 | 5,100 ± 226 | 61.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 2,937 | 5,035 ± 155 | 58.3% | Audited | A/A |
| 2,852 | 4,937 ± 146 | 57.8% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2,598 | 4,864 | 53.4% | Derived | — | |
| 2,489 | 5,157 | 48.3% | Derived | — | |
| 2,528 | 5,450 extrapolated | 46.4% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Menifee County only. The complete district District 5 result is shown below for comparison.
Menifee County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Benjamin HURLEY0—
Brandon R. MONHOLLEN0—
Hal ROGERS0—
Jerry Lee SHELTON0—
Kevin SMITH0—
District District 5 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 6 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
6 precincts · 3,294 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -B101B101 | 186 | 547 | 7 | 740 | 25.1% | 73.9% | R+48.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -E101E101 | 125 | 545 | 17 | 687 | 18.2% | 79.3% | R+61.1 |
| Precinct -D101D101 | 132 | 528 | 17 | 677 | 19.5% | 78.0% | R+58.5 |
| Precinct -C101C101 | 97 | 497 | 6 | 600 | 16.2% | 82.8% | R+66.7 |
| Precinct -A101A101 | 65 | 236 | 9 | 310 | 21.0% | 76.1% | R+55.2 |
| Precinct -A102A102 | 59 | 210 | 11 | 280 | 21.1% | 75.0% | R+53.9 |
presidential history
Party record book
Menifee County, KY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
76.8%
1,076 votes · D+54.1
Runner-up · Jimmy Carter, 1976 · 76.8%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
77.8%
2,563 votes · R+57.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 74.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
1,425votes
74.6% of the vote · D+49.8
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1992 · 1,311 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
2,563votes
77.8% of the vote · R+57.7
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 2,311 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
James M. Cox1920
+58.7pts D vs U.S.
Place D+32.5 · U.S. R+26.2
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +56.7 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2024
+56.2pts R vs U.S.
Place R+57.7 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · +54.8 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RGreg ElkinsState Senate · 28
RDavid HaleState House · 74
Seats representing Menifee County, KY. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 1 state senate and 1 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2024D+14.3
Presidential vote · 2024R+57.7
Menifee County, KY registers Democratic but votes Republican — a 72-point gap between how voters register and how they vote, the signature of ancestral registration that trails realignment.
5,456 registered voters · 2024
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+133 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +685 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $40,898 in average income, against $47,942 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+46.6 on average — 11 points more Democratic-leaning than Menifee County, KY itself (R+57.7).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Montgomery County, KY43R+46.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Montgomery County, KY36
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +43 |
| 2012 | −85 |
| 2013 | 0 |
| 2014 | −25 |
| 2015 | +77 |
| 2016 | +86 |
| 2017 | +28 |
| 2018 | 0 |
| 2019 | +82 |
| 2021 | +96 |
| 2022 | +85 |
| 2023 | +83 |
| 2024 | +82 |
| 2025 | +133 |
With roughly 6,500 residents tucked into the Daniel Boone National Forest, Menifee County has shifted so decisively toward Republican presidential candidates that its margins now rank among the widest in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 54.4 points in 1976 and a Republican high of 57.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 7.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 57.7 points.
A population of 6,230, a 96% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $45,096 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Dickenson County and Buchanan County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Dickenson County
Virginia
96.1twin score
12-yr trend% unaffiliated2004 margin
Buchanan County
Virginia
88.5twin score
12-yr trendAmerican ancestry2004 margin≠ elasticity
Magoffin County
Kentucky
86.8twin score
2004–2024 trajectory% WhiteAmerican ancestry≠ 12-yr trend
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Menifee County, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/21165/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Frequently asked questions
How did Menifee County, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Menifee County, Kentucky voted Republican by 57.7 points (R+57.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,294 votes cast, 664 went Democratic and 2,563 went Republican.
When did Menifee County, Kentucky last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Menifee County, Kentucky voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Menifee County, Kentucky?
Menifee County, Kentucky has a population of 6,230 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Menifee County, Kentucky?
Median household income in Menifee County, Kentucky is $45,096 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Menifee County, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Menifee County, Kentucky from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 28 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.