Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupCarter CountyMissouriUnited States
American17.1%6.8%5.3%
German15.9%21.3%12.5%
Irish10.9%11.8%9.4%
English4.9%11.9%9.5%
Polish2.7%1.3%2.2%
French2.2%2.2%1.6%
Scottish1.5%1.8%1.3%
Scotch-Irish1.3%——
Mexican1.8%3.2%11.3%
Peruvian0.3%——
Ecuadorian0.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Carter County
Missouri
United States
Median age
38.9
39.2
39.1
Age 18–24
8.5%
9.2%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
20.6%
17.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Carter County
Missouri
United States
Median household income
$50,000
$70,702
$84,427
Poverty rate
20.8%
12.6%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
10.1%
32.4%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Carter County
Missouri
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
3.6%
6.7%
22.3%
Spanish
2.6%
2.9%
13.6%
Religious landscape
Measure
Carter County
Missouri
United States
Catholic
1.0%
12.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
37.0%
24.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
56.3%
51.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Carter County, Missouri
Precinct data
Results by precinct
5 precincts · 2,862 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Carter County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -ELLSINOREELLSINORE
124
1,124
7
1,255
9.9%
89.6%
R+79.7
Precinct -VAN BURENVAN BUREN
148
758
1
907
16.3%
83.6%
R+67.3
Precinct -GRANDINGRANDIN
56
380
2
438
12.8%
86.8%
R+74.0
Precinct -FREMONTFREMONT
16
121
0
137
11.7%
88.3%
R+76.6
Precinct -EASTWOODEASTWOOD
20
105
0
125
16.0%
84.0%
R+68.0
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+23.7%
1896
+11.6%
1900
+9.1%
1904
+4.2%
1908
+7.2%
1912
+21.8%
1916
+10.4%
1920
−6.2%
1924
+14.7%
1928
−1.3%
1932
+33.4%
1936
+19.2%
1940
+11.3%
1944
+7.7%
1948
+13.0%
1952
+1.0%
1956
+1.6%
1960
−21.1%
1964
+23.6%
1968
−6.5%
1972
−38.0%
1976
+15.5%
1980
−5.5%
1984
−21.0%
1988
−13.5%
1992
+2.5%
1996
−0.3%
2000
−26.1%
2004
−30.0%
2008
−29.5%
2012
−43.7%
2016
−66.2%
2020
−70.2%
2024
−74.2%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
12.7%Harris364
86.9%Trump2,488
0.3%Oliver8 +1
R+74.2
R+4.0
R+72.7
2,862
All 4 candidates in 2024 · 2 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican86.9%2,488
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic12.7%364
Chase OliverLibertarian0.3%8
Jill SteinIndependent0.1%2
R
14.4%Biden418
84.6%Trump2,451
0.6%Jorgensen18
R+70.2
R+3.9
R+74.6
2,897
R
15.3%Clinton436
81.5%Trump2,324
1.9%Johnson55
R+66.2
R+22.5
R+68.3
2,850
R
26.9%Obama754
70.7%Romney1,978
1.8%Gray49
R+43.7
R+14.2
R+47.6
2,799
R
34.0%Obama984
63.5%McCain1,840
2.6%
R+29.5
D+0.4
R+36.8
2,898
R
34.7%Kerry964
64.7%Bush1,797
0.6%
R+30.0
R+3.9
R+27.5
2,779
R
35.5%Gore997
61.6%Bush1,730
1.4%Nader40
R+26.1
R+25.8
R+26.6
2,808
R
43.8%Clinton1,172
44.1%Dole1,180
11.2%Perot301
R+0.3
R+2.8
R+8.8
2,677
D
43.5%Clinton1,169
41.0%Bush1,101
15.1%Perot405
D+2.5
D+16.1
R+3.0
2,686
R
43.0%Dukakis1,087
56.5%Bush1,429
0.5%
R+13.5
D+7.4
R+5.8
2,528
R
39.5%Mondale916
60.5%Reagan1,402
0.0%
R+21.0
R+15.4
R+2.7
2,318
R
45.9%Carter1,087
51.4%Reagan1,218
2.7%
R+5.5
R+21.1
D+4.2
2,368
D
57.5%Carter1,154
42.0%Ford842
0.5%
D+15.5
D+53.5
D+13.5
2,007
R
31.0%McGovern565
69.0%Nixon1,257
0.0%
R+38.0
R+31.5
R+14.8
1,822
R
39.1%Humphrey738
45.6%Nixon861
15.3%
R+6.5
R+30.1
R+5.8
1,888
D
61.8%Johnson1,232
38.2%Goldwater761
0.0%
D+23.6
D+44.8
D+1.0
1,993
R
39.4%Kennedy683
60.6%Nixon1,049
0.0%
R+21.1
R+22.8
R+21.3
1,732
D
50.8%Stevenson1,067
49.2%Eisenhower1,033
0.0%
D+1.6
D+0.6
D+17.0
2,100
D
50.5%Stevenson1,123
49.5%Eisenhower1,100
0.0%
D+1.0
R+12.0
D+11.8
2,223
D
56.1%Truman1,255
43.1%Dewey964
0.8%
D+13.0
D+5.3
D+8.5
2,237
D
53.6%Roosevelt1,207
45.9%Dewey1,033
0.5%
D+7.7
R+3.5
D+0.2
2,252
D
55.6%Roosevelt1,499
44.3%Willkie1,195
0.1%
D+11.3
R+8.0
D+1.3
2,697
D
59.1%Roosevelt1,590
39.9%Landon1,073
1.0%
D+19.2
R+14.2
R+5.0
2,689
D
65.9%Roosevelt1,522
32.5%Hoover750
1.6%
D+33.4
D+34.8
D+15.6
2,309
R
49.1%Smith963
50.4%Hoover989
0.5%
R+1.3
R+16.0
D+16.1
1,962
D
55.2%Davis1,051
40.6%Coolidge772
3.6%La Follette68
D+14.7
D+20.9
D+39.8
1,903
R
45.4%Cox930
51.6%Harding1,057
2.9%
R+6.2
R+16.6
D+20.0
2,047
D
51.9%Wilson586
41.5%Hughes469
6.6%
D+10.4
R+11.5
D+7.2
1,130
D
49.5%Wilson458
27.6%Taft256
22.9%
D+21.8
D+14.6
D+2.3
926
D
50.9%Bryan591
43.6%Taft507
5.5%
D+7.2
D+3.1
D+16.8
1,162
D
50.3%Parker556
46.1%Roosevelt510
3.6%
D+4.2
R+4.9
D+23.8
1,106
D
54.3%Bryan755
45.3%McKinley629
0.4%
D+9.1
R+2.5
D+16.6
1,390
D
55.2%Bryan611
43.6%McKinley483
1.2%
D+11.6
R+12.2
D+17.6
1,107
D
61.0%Cleveland617
37.3%Harrison377
1.7%
D+23.7
—
D+22.1
1,011
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
13.4%379
85.1%2,403
2,825
2022
R
15.6%298
82.6%1,578
1,911
2018
R
20.8%490
76.5%1,799
2,353
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Carter County, MO
Year
Total registered
2016
4,754
2018
4,716
2020
4,717
2022
4,239
2024
4,063
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+40 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −105 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,642 in average income, against $53,813 for residents who stayed — 2% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+63.8 on average — 10 points more Democratic-leaning than Carter County, MO itself (R+74.2).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
Butler County, MO38R+63.8
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Butler County, MO49
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Carter County, MO in Carter County, MO: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+52
2012
−42
2013
+35
2014
−67
2015
−14
2016
−62
2017
−24
2018
−95
2019
−84
2021
+147
2022
−61
2023
+53
2024
+17
2025
+40
Carter County's Ozark hill country and sparse population of under 6,000 produced an R+74.2 presidential margin in 2024, placing it among the most one-sided results in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.4 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 74.2 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 74.2 points.
A population of 5,297, a 93% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $50,000 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Ripley County and Harrison County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Carter County, Missouri voted Republican by 74.2 points (R+74.2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,862 votes cast, 364 went Democratic and 2,488 went Republican.
When did Carter County, Missouri last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carter County, Missouri voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Carter County, Missouri?
Carter County, Missouri has a population of 5,297 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carter County, Missouri?
Median household income in Carter County, Missouri is $50,000 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Carter County, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carter County, Missouri from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 16 went Republican.
