Jefferson County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
12 precincts · 8,291 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -02-7502-75 | 331 | 1,073 | 42 | 1,446 | 22.9% | 74.2% | R+51.3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -04-7504-75 | 346 | 803 | 30 | 1,179 | 29.3% | 68.1% | R+38.8 |
| Precinct -09-7509-75 | 401 | 708 | 28 | 1,137 | 35.3% | 62.3% | R+27.0 |
| Precinct -07-7507-75 | 389 | 656 | 31 | 1,076 | 36.2% | 61.0% | R+24.8 |
| Precinct -10-7510-75 | 288 | 499 | 29 | 816 | 35.3% | 61.2% | R+25.9 |
| Precinct -06-7506-75 | 152 | 442 | 16 | 610 | 24.9% | 72.5% | R+47.5 |
| Precinct -08-7508-75 | 201 | 354 | 14 | 569 | 35.3% | 62.2% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -01-6901-69 | 95 | 337 | 13 | 445 | 21.3% | 75.7% | R+54.4 |
| Precinct -11-7911-79 | 185 | 239 | 10 | 434 | 42.6% | 55.1% | R+12.4 |
| Precinct -03-7503-75 | 65 | 274 | 4 | 343 | 19.0% | 79.9% | R+60.9 |
| Precinct -05-7505-75 | 42 | 107 | 10 | 159 | 26.4% | 67.3% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -12-7512-75 | 21 | 52 | 4 | 77 | 27.3% | 67.5% | R+40.3 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | −0.5% |
| 1896 | +86.9% |
| 1900 | +32.8% |
| 1904 | −5.7% |
| 1908 | +12.1% |
| 1912 | +20.1% |
| 1916 | +21.2% |
| 1920 | −15.8% |
| 1924 | −12.0% |
| 1928 | −14.7% |
| 1932 | +21.9% |
| 1936 | +40.5% |
| 1940 | +20.5% |
| 1944 | +0.4% |
| 1948 | +5.2% |
| 1952 | −22.3% |
| 1956 | −22.8% |
| 1960 | −3.0% |
| 1964 | +18.7% |
| 1968 | +1.2% |
| 1972 | −16.5% |
| 1976 | −6.7% |
| 1980 | −24.4% |
| 1984 | −24.9% |
| 1988 | −6.8% |
| 1992 | −3.0% |
| 1996 | −9.9% |
| 2000 | −34.8% |
| 2004 | −33.5% |
| 2008 | −15.1% |
| 2012 | −27.3% |
| 2016 | −32.5% |
| 2020 | −33.4% |
| 2024 | −36.5% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 8,377 |
| 2018 | 8,801 |
| 2020 | 9,401 |
| 2022 | 9,423 |
| 2024 | 10,168 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+156 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,333 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $80,815 in average income, against $104,322 for residents who stayed — 23% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+1.6 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Jefferson County, MT itself (R+36.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Lewis and Clark County, MT133R+5.7
- Gallatin County, MT70D+3.2
- Silver Bow County, MT25D+7.0
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Lewis and Clark County, MT127
- Gallatin County, MT38
- Silver Bow County, MT29
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −35 |
| 2012 | −35 |
| 2013 | +120 |
| 2014 | +63 |
| 2015 | +100 |
| 2016 | +196 |
| 2017 | +140 |
| 2018 | +182 |
| 2019 | +158 |
| 2021 | +411 |
| 2022 | +405 |
| 2023 | +236 |
| 2024 | +236 |
| 2025 | +156 |
Jefferson County's population of roughly 10,000 is spread across former gold and silver mining corridors west of Helena. It has delivered double-digit Republican presidential margins in every cycle this century, with 2024's spread exceeding 36 points.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 86.9 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 36.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.2 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 36.5 points.
A population of 12,774, a 91% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $95,490 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carbon County and Madison County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Jefferson County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30043/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.