Carbon County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
13 precincts · 7,297 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -P 11P 11 | 536 | 592 | 38 | 1,166 | 46.0% | 50.8% | R+4.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -P 7P 7 | 143 | 532 | 27 | 702 | 20.4% | 75.8% | R+55.4 |
| Precinct -P 3P 3 | 116 | 566 | 13 | 695 | 16.7% | 81.4% | R+64.7 |
| Precinct -P 15P 15 | 106 | 527 | 17 | 650 | 16.3% | 81.1% | R+64.8 |
| Precinct -P 8P 8 | 341 | 279 | 18 | 638 | 53.4% | 43.7% | D+9.7 |
| Precinct -P 1P 1 | 114 | 476 | 23 | 613 | 18.6% | 77.7% | R+59.1 |
| Precinct -P 10P 10 | 329 | 170 | 21 | 520 | 63.3% | 32.7% | D+30.6 |
| Precinct -P 5P 5 | 81 | 354 | 5 | 440 | 18.4% | 80.5% | R+62.0 |
| Precinct -P 16P 16 | 119 | 273 | 8 | 400 | 29.8% | 68.3% | R+38.5 |
| Precinct -P 9P 9 | 244 | 134 | 19 | 397 | 61.5% | 33.8% | D+27.7 |
| Precinct -P 6P 6 | 87 | 290 | 16 | 393 | 22.1% | 73.8% | R+51.7 |
| Precinct -P 4P 4 | 70 | 275 | 14 | 359 | 19.5% | 76.6% | R+57.1 |
| Precinct -P 2P 2 | 67 | 251 | 6 | 324 | 20.7% | 77.5% | R+56.8 |
Presidential margin, 1896–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1896 | +33.9% |
| 1900 | −1.2% |
| 1904 | −34.8% |
| 1908 | −15.6% |
| 1912 | +5.8% |
| 1916 | +5.4% |
| 1920 | −37.8% |
| 1924 | −28.0% |
| 1928 | −19.4% |
| 1932 | +18.3% |
| 1936 | +30.7% |
| 1940 | +5.0% |
| 1944 | −1.3% |
| 1948 | +2.3% |
| 1952 | −22.8% |
| 1956 | −12.6% |
| 1960 | −3.7% |
| 1964 | +15.5% |
| 1968 | −17.3% |
| 1972 | −28.3% |
| 1976 | −6.6% |
| 1980 | −23.0% |
| 1984 | −26.6% |
| 1988 | −7.2% |
| 1992 | −0.3% |
| 1996 | −6.2% |
| 2000 | −32.9% |
| 2004 | −28.1% |
| 2008 | −11.6% |
| 2012 | −23.7% |
| 2016 | −32.0% |
| 2020 | −29.0% |
| 2024 | −32.4% |
U.S. Senate
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 7,723 |
| 2018 | 7,911 |
| 2020 | 8,183 |
| 2022 | 8,572 |
| 2024 | 9,075 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−47 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +1,793 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $78,731 in average income, against $85,027 for residents who stayed — 7% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+22.6 on average — 9.8 points more Democratic-leaning than Carbon County, MT itself (R+32.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Yellowstone County, MT121R+27.1
- Gallatin County, MT21D+3.2
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Yellowstone County, MT114
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +27 |
| 2012 | +58 |
| 2013 | +204 |
| 2014 | +99 |
| 2015 | +2 |
| 2016 | +134 |
| 2017 | +212 |
| 2018 | +30 |
| 2019 | +46 |
| 2021 | +431 |
| 2022 | +333 |
| 2023 | +189 |
| 2024 | +75 |
| 2025 | −47 |
Carbon County's economy runs on agriculture and coal extraction along the Wyoming border, producing some of Montana's most consistent Republican margins — the 2024 presidential gap exceeded 32 points in a county of under 10,000 residents.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 33.9 points in 1896 and a Republican high of 37.8 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 32.4 points.
A population of 11,116, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,261 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Madison County and Jefferson County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Carbon County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30009/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.