Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupMusselshell CountyMontanaUnited States
German19.4%22.9%12.5%
English13.1%13.1%9.5%
Irish11.4%13.5%9.4%
American8.4%5.4%5.3%
Norwegian4.1%7.5%—
Dutch3.2%——
Danish3.0%——
Scotch-Irish2.9%——
Blackfeet0.3%1.0%—
Mexican3.0%2.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.7%0.2%1.8%
Spaniard0.2%0.3%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Musselshell County
Montana
United States
Median age
51.3
40.8
39.1
Age 18–24
6.3%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
28.9%
20.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Musselshell County
Montana
United States
Median household income
$58,920
$72,509
$84,427
Poverty rate
17.0%
11.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
22.4%
35.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Musselshell County
Montana
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
5.0%
4.2%
22.3%
German or other West Germanic
1.6%
0.8%
0.5%
Other languages
1.8%
0.7%
0.8%
Religious landscape
Measure
Musselshell County
Montana
United States
Catholic
6.3%
10.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
6.9%
13.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
75.5%
65.3%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Musselshell County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
6 precincts · 3,012 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Musselshell County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -PRECINCT 6PRECINCT 6
139
897
21
1,057
13.2%
84.9%
R+71.7
Precinct -PRECINCT 5PRECINCT 5
69
714
19
802
8.6%
89.0%
R+80.4
Precinct -PRECINCT 1PRECINCT 1
97
372
10
479
20.3%
77.7%
R+57.4
Precinct -PRECINCT 3PRECINCT 3
65
367
13
445
14.6%
82.5%
R+67.9
Precinct -PRECINCT 7PRECINCT 7
15
119
3
137
10.9%
86.9%
R+75.9
Precinct -PRECINCT 8PRECINCT 8
11
81
0
92
12.0%
88.0%
R+76.1
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1912–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1912
−0.8%
1916
+7.4%
1920
−29.7%
1924
−38.0%
1928
−5.2%
1932
+19.8%
1936
+43.8%
1940
+24.4%
1944
+14.2%
1948
+7.1%
1952
−0.5%
1956
−2.2%
1960
−0.3%
1964
+18.2%
1968
−8.5%
1972
−26.1%
1976
−9.4%
1980
−22.5%
1984
−32.2%
1988
−17.3%
1992
−10.2%
1996
−22.6%
2000
−48.5%
2004
−50.1%
2008
−41.0%
2012
−55.7%
2016
−67.0%
2020
−69.8%
2024
−71.5%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
13.1%Harris396
84.7%Trump2,550
1.3%Kennedy38 +2
R+71.5
R+1.7
R+70.0
3,012
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican84.7%2,550
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic13.1%396
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent1.3%38
Chase OliverLibertarian0.7%20
Jill SteinIndependent0.3%8
R
14.3%Biden413
84.1%Trump2,423
1.6%Jorgensen45
R+69.8
R+2.8
R+74.2
2,881
R
13.6%Clinton332
80.6%Trump1,967
3.9%Johnson94
R+67.0
R+11.3
R+69.1
2,441
R
20.4%Obama492
76.2%Romney1,833
3.4%GRAY82
R+55.7
R+14.7
R+59.6
2,407
R
27.6%Obama636
68.6%McCain1,581
3.9%
R+41.0
D+9.1
R+48.3
2,306
R
23.9%Kerry538
74.0%Bush1,663
2.0%
R+50.1
R+1.6
R+47.6
2,247
R
23.2%Gore512
71.7%Bush1,582
2.4%Nader53
R+48.5
R+25.9
R+49.0
2,207
R
31.4%Clinton652
54.0%Dole1,121
14.0%Perot291
R+22.6
R+12.4
R+31.1
2,076
R
29.1%Clinton648
39.3%Bush876
31.0%Perot691
R+10.2
D+7.1
R+15.8
2,228
R
40.7%Dukakis898
58.1%Bush1,280
1.2%
R+17.3
D+14.9
R+9.6
2,204
R
33.1%Mondale781
65.3%Reagan1,541
1.6%
R+32.2
R+9.8
R+14.0
2,359
R
35.6%Carter784
58.0%Reagan1,279
6.4%
R+22.5
R+13.0
R+12.7
2,204
R
44.6%Carter922
54.1%Ford1,117
1.3%
R+9.4
D+16.6
R+11.5
2,065
R
35.0%McGovern689
61.1%Nixon1,202
3.9%
R+26.1
R+17.6
R+2.9
1,967
R
42.7%Humphrey795
51.2%Nixon953
6.2%
R+8.5
R+26.7
R+7.8
1,863
D
59.1%Johnson1,189
40.9%Goldwater823
0.0%
D+18.2
D+18.5
R+4.4
2,012
R
49.8%Kennedy1,100
50.1%Nixon1,107
0.1%
R+0.3
D+1.9
R+0.5
2,210
R
48.9%Stevenson1,115
51.1%Eisenhower1,165
0.0%
R+2.2
R+1.7
D+13.2
2,280
R
49.6%Stevenson1,240
50.1%Eisenhower1,253
0.4%
R+0.5
R+7.7
D+10.2
2,502
D
47.6%Truman1,188
40.5%Dewey1,010
11.9%
D+7.1
R+7.1
D+2.6
2,496
D
56.5%Roosevelt1,342
42.3%Dewey1,004
1.2%
D+14.2
R+10.2
D+6.7
2,375
D
61.2%Roosevelt1,807
36.8%Willkie1,086
2.0%
D+24.4
R+19.4
D+14.5
2,952
D
69.4%Roosevelt2,092
25.6%Landon771
5.0%
D+43.8
D+24.0
D+19.6
3,014
D
55.8%Roosevelt1,584
36.0%Hoover1,021
8.3%
D+19.8
D+25.0
D+2.0
2,840
R
45.4%Smith1,444
50.6%Hoover1,608
4.1%
R+5.2
D+32.8
D+12.3
3,181
O
7.6%Davis247
45.5%Coolidge1,488
46.3%La Follette1,512
La Follette +1.3
R+8.2
R+12.8
3,267
R
29.5%Cox951
59.2%Harding1,910
11.3%
R+29.7
R+37.1
R+3.5
3,225
D
50.3%Wilson2,036
42.9%Hughes1,738
6.8%
D+7.4
D+8.2
D+4.2
4,049
O
30.0%Wilson470
30.8%Taft483
39.2%
Roosevelt +8.4
—
R+20.4
1,568
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
17.8%536
80.1%2,408
3,005
2020
R
18.7%538
81.3%2,341
2,879
2018
R
23.6%573
71.7%1,743
2,432
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Musselshell County, MT
Year
Total registered
2016
3,031
2018
3,256
2020
3,571
2022
3,558
2024
3,874
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+144 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +1,102 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $61,367 in average income, against $67,697 for residents who stayed — 9% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+27.1 on average — 44 points more Democratic-leaning than Musselshell County, MT itself (R+71.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
Yellowstone County, MT39R+27.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Yellowstone County, MT57
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Musselshell County, MT in Musselshell County, MT: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+200
2012
−36
2013
−22
2014
−25
2015
−22
2016
+24
2017
+7
2018
+25
2019
+26
2021
+210
2022
+309
2023
+187
2024
+75
2025
+144
Musselshell County, anchored by the small ranching town of Roundup, recorded a 71.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024—among the widest in a state already defined by its rural conservative lean.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 43.8 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 71.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 71.5 points.
A population of 5,152, a 87% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,920 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Niobrara County and Petroleum County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Musselshell County, Montana voted Republican by 71.5 points (R+71.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 3,012 votes cast, 396 went Democratic and 2,550 went Republican.
When did Musselshell County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Musselshell County, Montana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Musselshell County, Montana?
Musselshell County, Montana has a population of 5,152 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Musselshell County, Montana?
Median household income in Musselshell County, Montana is $58,920 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Musselshell County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Musselshell County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.
