Jefferson County, Oregon: Florida Surge county. In 2024, voted R+30%. Republican peak: R+35 in 1952.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+30MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Florida SurgeAkashic typology
- Population
- 25,2032024 5-year
- Median household income
- $76,2602024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 62.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 21.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+33 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+35 in 1952MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Daviess County, KY · similarity 1.00
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Jefferson CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Jefferson County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | No data |
| 1896 | No data |
| 1900 | No data |
| 1904 | No data |
| 1908 | No data |
| 1912 | No data |
| 1916 | +20.1% |
| 1920 | −31.9% |
| 1924 | −13.8% |
| 1928 | −21.3% |
| 1932 | +29.2% |
| 1936 | +32.5% |
| 1940 | +4.9% |
| 1944 | −16.9% |
| 1948 | −5.1% |
| 1952 | −34.5% |
| 1956 | −9.7% |
| 1960 | −7.6% |
| 1964 | +18.4% |
| 1968 | −16.9% |
| 1972 | −18.2% |
| 1976 | −1.1% |
| 1980 | −18.3% |
| 1984 | −26.1% |
| 1988 | −3.3% |
| 1992 | +3.4% |
| 1996 | −1.3% |
| 2000 | −16.8% |
| 2004 | −18.7% |
| 2008 | −8.7% |
| 2012 | −16.4% |
| 2016 | −26.5% |
| 2020 | −23.5% |
| 2024 | −29.9% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 3,941 | 7,454 | 11,750 | ||
| R | 4,393 | 7,189 | 11,913 | ||
| R | 2,980 | 5,483 | 9,459 | ||
| R | 3,301 | 4,642 | 8,175 | ||
| R | 3,682 | 4,402 | 8,318 | ||
| R | 3,243 | 4,762 | 8,115 | ||
| R | 2,681 | 3,838 | 6,897 | ||
| R | 2,555 | 2,634 | 6,195 | ||
| D | 2,161 | 1,962 | 5,906 | ||
| R | 2,346 | 2,509 | 4,995 | ||
| R | 1,920 | 3,283 | 5,216 | ||
| R | 1,654 | 2,523 | 4,737 | ||
| R | 1,769 | 1,810 | 3,777 | ||
| R | 1,229 | 1,816 | 3,221 | ||
| R | 1,160 | 1,669 | 3,020 | ||
| D | 1,739 | 1,197 | 2,938 | ||
| R | 1,214 | 1,413 | 2,629 | ||
| R | 1,117 | 1,356 | 2,473 | ||
| R | 723 | 1,488 | 2,217 | ||
| R | 559 | 622 | 1,227 | ||
| R | 297 | 419 | 723 | ||
| D | 467 | 423 | 896 | ||
| D | 514 | 253 | 803 | ||
| D | 477 | 253 | 766 | ||
| R | 308 | 481 | 811 | ||
| R | 242 | 374 | 959 | ||
| R | 300 | 623 | 1,012 | ||
| D | 904 | 581 | 1,608 | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.3%
English
10.3%
Irish
9.1%
American
3.5%
Scottish
1.6%
Italian
1.4%
French
1.2%
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.5 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$76,260
Jefferson County ranks in the top 25% of US counties.
Jefferson County$76,260
Oregon$83,011
United States$80,734
Jefferson County ranks in the top 25% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.4%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.5%
Working age (18–64)12.1%
Seniors (65+)12.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
83.0%
speak English only
Spanish13.8%
Other languages2.3%
Other Indo-European0.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 71.0% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Jefferson County sits in Oregon's arid interior plateau, where a sparse, rural population centered on agriculture and the Warm Springs Reservation has delivered double-digit Republican presidential margins in every cycle since 2000.
The Democratic margin here once reached thirty-three points in 1936. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved six points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was thirty points.
A population of 25,203, a 62% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $76,260 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Daviess County and Mason County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Jefferson County, Oregon. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/41031/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
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Frequently asked questions
How did Jefferson County, Oregon vote in 2024?
In 2024, Jefferson County, Oregon voted Republican by 29.9 points (R+30), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 11,750 votes cast, 3,941 went Democratic and 7,454 went Republican.
What is Jefferson County, Oregon's political typology?
Akashic places Jefferson County, Oregon in the "Florida Surge" typology — Florida coastal and retiree counties that moved sharply Republican across the Trump era. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 6 times, Republican 22 times, and other 0 times.
When did Jefferson County, Oregon last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Jefferson County, Oregon voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Jefferson County, Oregon?
Jefferson County, Oregon has a population of 25,203 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Jefferson County, Oregon?
Median household income in Jefferson County, Oregon is $76,260 — below the national median of $80,734. The Oregon state median is $83,011.
What is the political history of Jefferson County, Oregon?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Jefferson County, Oregon from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The county's typology — "Florida Surge" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.