congressional districtPennsylvania 15th Congressional District
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+22.7
2008R+12.1
2012R+24.4
2016R+36.4
2020R+37.0
2024R+38.0
net swing · 2004→2024R+15.3R+22.7 → R+38.0
vs. U.S. · 2024R+36.5R+38.0 vs R+1.5
presidential returns
2024 turnout 65.4% of 606,763 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
121,502
272,217
3,370
397,089
606,763
65.4%
2020
119,486
263,017
5,298
387,801
616,241†
62.9%
2016
102,933
228,645
13,678
345,256
623,168†
55.4%
2012
117,432
195,196
6,676
319,304
620,986†
51.4%
2008
146,139
187,380
7,020
340,539
606,335†
56.2%
2004
126,253
200,938
2,270
329,461
591,684†
55.7%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles from the constituent-county ACS trend anchored to the current figure. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
District by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupPA-15PennsylvaniaUnited States
German28.1%21.6%12.5%
Irish13.0%14.8%9.4%
English10.4%8.3%9.5%
Italian8.2%10.6%4.8%
American6.7%4.4%5.3%
Polish4.2%5.4%2.2%
Scottish1.6%1.1%1.3%
French1.2%—1.6%
Puerto Rican0.6%3.7%1.8%
Mexican0.6%1.4%11.3%
African American†1.5%8.7%9.9%
Chinese0.6%0.9%1.3%
Asian Indian0.4%1.2%1.4%
Korean0.2%0.2%0.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
PA-15
Pennsylvania
United States
Median age
42.3
41.2
39.1
Age 18–24
12.0%
8.9%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
21.0%
19.5%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
PA-15
Pennsylvania
United States
Median household income
$65,472
$77,971
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.1%
11.7%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
26.2%
35.2%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
PA-15
Pennsylvania
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
5.9%
12.4%
22.3%
Spanish
1.4%
5.6%
13.6%
German or other West Germanic
2.1%
0.9%
0.5%
Religious landscape
Measure
PA-15
Pennsylvania
United States
Catholic
—
21.9%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
9.3%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
53.1%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−22.7%
2008
−12.1%
2012
−24.4%
2016
−36.4%
2020
−37.0%
2024
−38.0%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Federal officeholders only. State and local officeholders are planned for the next data pass.
Congressional elections · 25 House races · 17 Senate races
U.S. House
Each result reflects the U.S. House district as it was drawn for that election; redistricting has redrawn these lines over time, so they can differ from the current 120th-Congress district shown on the map above.
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), House. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
District
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
15
R
28.5%111,408
71.5%279,027
390,435
2022
15
R
30.1%91,729
69.9%213,417
305,146
2020
15
R
26.5%92,156
73.5%255,058
347,214
2018
15
R
32.2%78,327
67.8%165,245
243,572
2016
15
R
38.0%124,129
58.4%190,618
326,474
2014
15
R
0.0%0
100.0%128,285
128,285
2012
15
R
43.2%128,764
56.8%168,960
297,724
2010
15
R
39.0%79,766
53.5%109,534
204,548
2008
15
R
41.4%128,333
58.6%181,433
309,766
2006
15
R
43.5%86,186
53.6%106,153
198,173
2004
15
R
39.4%114,646
58.6%170,634
291,134
2002
15
R
42.6%73,212
57.4%98,493
171,713
2000
15
R
46.7%103,864
53.3%118,307
222,171
1998
15
R
45.0%66,930
55.0%81,755
148,706
1996
15
D
54.8%109,812
41.3%82,803
200,363
1994
15
D
47.8%72,073
47.4%71,602
150,909
1992
15
D
52.2%111,419
46.7%99,520
213,324
1990
15
R
39.4%50,233
60.6%77,178
127,411
1988
15
R
42.5%79,127
57.5%106,951
186,078
1986
15
R
43.2%56,972
56.8%74,829
131,801
1984
15
R
41.9%79,490
58.1%110,338
189,828
1982
15
R
42.2%58,002
57.8%79,455
137,457
1980
15
R
39.7%66,626
59.5%99,874
167,725
1978
15
R
46.8%58,077
53.2%65,986
124,063
1976
15
D
65.2%108,844
34.5%57,616
166,890
U.S. Senate
The statewide Senate race, counted in this district — aggregated from the precinct-level returns that fall inside its boundaries (not a statewide figure).
Votes · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL) precinct returns (CC BY 4.0); aggregated to the district over VEST precinct geometry (CC BY-NC 4.0).
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
31.2%123,755
66.1%262,308
396,859
2022
D
51.2%2,751,012
46.3%2,487,260
5,368,021
2018
D
55.6%2,777,680
42.7%2,134,848
4,994,643
2016
R
47.3%2,865,012
48.8%2,951,702
6,051,856
2012
D
53.7%3,021,364
44.6%2,509,132
5,627,422
2010
R
49.0%1,948,716
51.0%2,028,945
3,977,661
2006
D
58.7%2,392,984
41.3%1,684,778
4,077,762
2004
R
42.0%2,334,126
52.6%2,925,080
5,558,525
2000
R
45.5%2,154,908
52.4%2,481,962
4,735,116
1998
R
34.8%1,028,839
61.3%1,814,180
2,957,499
1994
R
46.9%1,648,481
49.4%1,735,691
3,513,112
1992
R
46.3%2,224,966
49.1%2,358,125
4,802,410
1988
R
32.4%1,416,764
66.5%2,901,715
4,366,598
1986
R
42.9%1,448,219
56.4%1,906,537
3,378,226
1982
R
39.2%1,412,965
59.3%2,136,418
3,604,108
1980
R
48.0%2,122,391
50.5%2,230,404
4,418,042
1976
R
46.8%2,126,977
52.4%2,381,891
4,546,353
2024 U.S. Senate — every candidate counted in this district
Dave McCormick · Republican66.1%262,308
Robert Casey · Democrat31.2%123,755
John C Thomas · Libertarian1.5%6,013
Leila L Hazou · Green0.6%2,483
Bernard Selker · Constitution0.6%2,300
Anchored in the rural south-central corridor of Pennsylvania, the district delivered a 44.8-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, making it an outlier even within a competitive swing state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 38.0 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved 0.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 38.0 points.
A population of 764,744, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,472 describe the district. The district's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Congressional District 13 and Congressional District 9.
Akashic
Political twins — districts
The congressional districts whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District vote in 2024?
In 2024, Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District voted Republican by 38.0 points (R+38.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 397,089 votes cast, 121,502 went Democratic and 272,217 went Republican.
How many people live in Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District?
Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District has a population of 764,744 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District?
Median household income in Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District is $65,472 — below the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Pennsylvania 15th Congressional District from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
