Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic24.4%380TrumpRepublican73.3%1,142OtherAll other candidates2.2%35
R+48.9
Lead
762
Total
1,557
vs nation
R+47.5
BidenDemocratic25.7%318TrumpRepublican72.1%893OtherAll other candidates2.2%27
R+46.4
Lead
575
Total
1,238
vs nation
R+50.9
ClintonDemocratic20.4%220TrumpRepublican73.0%786OtherAll other candidates6.6%71
R+52.6
Lead
566
Total
1,077
vs nation
R+54.6
ObamaDemocratic20.0%192RomneyRepublican76.6%736OtherAll other candidates3.4%33
R+56.6
Lead
544
Total
961
vs nation
R+60.5
ObamaDemocratic24.1%191McCainRepublican74.7%593OtherAll other candidates1.3%10
R+50.6
Lead
402
Total
794
vs nation
R+57.9
KerryDemocratic24.9%184BushRepublican74.7%553OtherAll other candidates0.4%3
R+49.9
Lead
369
Total
740
vs nation
R+47.4
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+48.9MIT Election Lab
Population
3,0692024 5-year
Population density
512 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
6 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$131,7392024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
78.3%2024 5-year
Black
0.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
13.0%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+56.6 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
68.1%1,573 participants ÷ 2,311 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+25.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+10.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
42.4%–49.1%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
53.6%
47.7%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,573
2,311 ± 322
68.1%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
948
1,988 ± 325
47.7%
Audited
E/D
1,244
1,697 ± 314
73.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
867
1,619 ± 214
53.6%
Audited
E/D
1,087
1,649 ± 214
65.9%
Audited
E/D
961
1,146
83.9%
Derived
—
794
952
83.4%
Derived
—
740
758 extrapolated
97.6%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Elm Springs, AR · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
25.7%
318 votes · R+46.4
Runner-up · John Kerry, 2004 · 24.9%
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
76.6%
736 votes · R+56.6
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 74.7%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
380votes
24.4% of the vote · R+48.9
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 318 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,142votes
73.3% of the vote · R+48.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 893 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John Kerry2004
−47.4pts D vs U.S.
Place R+49.9 · U.S. R+2.5
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · −47.5 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+60.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+56.6 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +57.9 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Elm Springs · how this place’s counties split between candidates in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain and there is no roll-up above it. Each cell counts how many of this place’s counties a candidate led — a count of records, not a vote total. Who led the place as a whole is not knowable from these returns, because county rows carry a leader and a lead but no per-candidate votes.
Presidential nominating contests in Elm Springs, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Elm Springs sits in the Mid-South. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 56.6 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.9 points.
A population of 3,069, a 78% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $131,739 describe the city.
In 2024, Elm Springs, Arkansas voted Republican by 48.9 points (R+48.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 1,557 votes cast, 380 went Democratic and 1,142 went Republican.
How many people live in Elm Springs, Arkansas?
Elm Springs, Arkansas has a population of 3,069 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Elm Springs, Arkansas?
Median household income in Elm Springs, Arkansas is $131,739 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Elm Springs, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Elm Springs, Arkansas from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
