media marketFort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
presidential margin
2004–2024 · Democratic minus Republican
2004R+24.4
2008R+30.8
2012R+34.1
2016R+34.9
2020R+30.2
2024R+31.5
full record · 1892 → 2024
presidential returns
2024 turnout 55.9% of 651,737 citizens 18+
Year
Democrat
Republican
Others
Total
CVAP
Turnout
2024
120,225
235,021
9,250
364,496
651,737
55.9%
2020
119,026
226,276
10,052
355,354
619,128
57.4%
2016
92,178
196,945
11,432
300,555
579,345
51.9%
2012
87,230
181,071
7,156
275,457
550,252
50.1%
2008
91,239
174,929
5,575
271,743
529,009
51.4%
2004
98,132
162,494
2,715
263,341
507,766†
51.9%
† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
11 counties by 2024 margin · County returns · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupFort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-RogersUnited States
English12.0%9.5%
German11.0%12.5%
Irish9.3%9.4%
American6.6%5.3%
Scottish2.0%1.3%
Italian1.8%4.8%
French1.5%1.6%
Polish0.7%2.2%
Mexican10.5%11.3%
Salvadoran2.0%0.7%
Guatemalan0.6%0.5%
Puerto Rican0.4%1.8%
Cuban0.2%0.7%
Honduran0.2%0.3%
Marshallese0.9%—
Asian Indian0.9%1.4%
Vietnamese0.5%0.6%
Laotian0.4%—
Chinese0.2%1.3%
Filipino0.2%0.9%
African American†2.1%9.9%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
United States
Median age
36.4
39.1
Age 18–24
10.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
15.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
United States
Median household income
$72,263
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.2%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
29.6%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
13.9%
22.3%
Spanish
10.2%
13.6%
Other Asian & Pacific Island
1.9%
1.1%
Religious landscape
Measure
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
United States
Catholic
9.5%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
35.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
45.4%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1892
+25.4%
1896
+43.7%
1900
+32.1%
1904
+13.1%
1908
+15.5%
1912
+33.0%
1916
+28.7%
1920
+2.8%
1924
+15.7%
1928
−4.0%
1932
+51.1%
1936
+38.3%
1940
+28.0%
1944
+15.2%
1948
+26.2%
1952
−8.6%
1956
−9.1%
1960
−15.2%
1964
+10.6%
1968
−14.3%
1972
−49.9%
1976
+8.8%
1980
−22.5%
1984
−39.5%
1988
−31.1%
1992
+1.2%
1996
−0.4%
2000
−20.0%
2004
−24.4%
2008
−30.8%
2012
−34.1%
2016
−34.9%
2020
−30.2%
2024
−31.5%
DemocraticRepublican
34 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
33.0%Harris120,225
64.5%Trump235,021
2.5%
R+31.5
R+1.3
R+30.0
364,496
R
33.5%Biden119,026
63.7%Trump226,276
2.8%
R+30.2
D+4.7
R+34.6
355,354
R
30.7%Clinton92,178
65.5%Trump196,945
3.8%
R+34.9
R+0.8
R+36.9
300,555
R
31.7%Obama87,230
65.7%Romney181,071
2.6%
R+34.1
R+3.3
R+37.9
275,457
R
33.6%Obama91,239
64.4%McCain174,929
2.1%
R+30.8
R+6.4
R+38.1
271,743
R
37.3%Kerry98,132
61.7%Bush162,494
1.0%
R+24.4
R+4.5
R+22.0
263,341
R
38.5%Gore85,232
58.5%Bush129,392
2.9%
R+20.0
R+19.6
R+20.5
221,134
R
44.4%Clinton87,832
44.8%Dole88,618
10.9%
R+0.4
R+1.6
R+8.9
198,010
D
43.2%Clinton90,770
42.0%Bush88,291
14.8%
D+1.2
D+32.3
R+4.4
210,142
R
33.9%Dukakis57,110
65.0%Bush109,499
1.1%
R+31.1
D+8.4
R+23.4
168,421
R
29.7%Mondale52,979
69.2%Reagan123,428
1.0%
R+39.5
R+17.0
R+21.3
178,275
R
36.1%Carter62,440
58.6%Reagan101,343
5.4%
R+22.5
R+31.2
R+12.7
173,080
D
54.2%Carter82,385
45.5%Ford69,066
0.3%
D+8.8
D+58.7
D+6.7
151,933
R
24.7%McGovern32,346
74.6%Nixon97,656
0.7%
R+49.9
R+35.6
R+26.7
130,890
R
27.9%Humphrey32,223
42.2%Nixon48,760
29.8%
R+14.3
R+24.9
R+13.6
115,410
D
55.1%Johnson55,035
44.6%Goldwater44,485
0.3%
D+10.6
D+25.7
R+12.0
99,803
R
41.8%Kennedy37,369
57.0%Nixon50,918
1.2%
R+15.2
R+6.1
R+15.3
89,325
R
45.2%Stevenson36,701
54.3%Eisenhower44,047
0.5%
R+9.1
R+0.4
D+6.3
81,131
R
45.6%Stevenson38,838
54.2%Eisenhower46,188
0.2%
R+8.6
R+34.9
D+2.1
85,188
D
60.7%Truman33,234
34.5%Dewey18,875
4.8%
D+26.2
D+11.1
D+21.7
54,758
D
57.5%Roosevelt30,345
42.3%Dewey22,339
0.2%
D+15.2
R+12.9
D+7.7
52,793
D
63.8%Roosevelt34,042
35.7%Willkie19,069
0.5%
D+28.0
R+10.2
D+18.1
53,390
D
69.0%Roosevelt33,441
30.7%Landon14,892
0.3%
D+38.3
R+12.9
D+14.0
48,470
D
74.9%Roosevelt39,820
23.7%Hoover12,625
1.4%
D+51.1
D+55.1
D+33.3
53,182
R
47.7%Smith24,182
51.7%Hoover26,196
0.5%
R+4.0
R+19.7
D+13.5
50,655
D
52.7%Davis22,301
37.0%Coolidge15,650
10.3%
D+15.7
D+13.0
D+40.9
42,329
D
49.9%Cox24,612
47.1%Harding23,254
2.9%
D+2.8
R+26.0
D+28.9
49,320
D
62.8%Wilson23,578
34.0%Hughes12,784
3.2%
D+28.7
R+4.2
D+25.6
37,545
D
55.3%Wilson15,965
22.4%Taft6,452
22.3%
D+33.0
D+17.4
D+13.4
28,868
D
54.7%Bryan20,556
39.1%Taft14,710
6.2%
D+15.5
D+2.5
D+25.1
37,598
D
53.5%Parker11,243
40.4%Roosevelt8,491
6.2%
D+13.1
R+19.0
D+32.8
21,030
D
65.4%Bryan15,630
33.2%McKinley7,945
1.4%
D+32.1
R+11.5
D+39.7
23,916
D
71.3%Bryan19,560
27.7%McKinley7,587
1.0%
D+43.7
D+18.3
D+49.7
27,419
D
59.0%Cleveland16,475
33.7%Harrison9,395
7.3%
D+25.4
—
D+23.7
27,907
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+37.2
vs
Presidential vote · 2024R+31.5
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 5.7 points more Republican.
DemocraticRepublicanUnaffiliatedOther parties
† Some years predate full county coverage; a flagged year sums only the counties reporting it.
Voter registration in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
Year
Total registered
Democratic
Republican
Unaffiliated
Other
2026 (partial)
54,803
12,316
32,679
9,390
418
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net domestic migration over time
+10,490 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +97,486 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Domestic migration in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+5,021
2012
+2,550
2013
+2,818
2014
+2,508
2015
+5,784
2016
+6,268
2017
+7,823
2018
+5,406
2019
+4,776
2021
+12,759
2022
+12,150
2023
+9,781
2024
+9,352
2025
+10,490
The Fort Smith–Fayetteville–Springdale–Rogers media market straddles two states along the Arkansas-Oklahoma border, blending a fast-growing Northwest Arkansas corridor—anchored by Walmart's corporate headquarters—with more rural, traditionally conservative constituencies to the south and west.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 51.1 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 49.9 points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved 1.3 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.5 points.
A population of 931,100, a 64% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $72,263 describe the market. The market's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Tulsa and Oklahoma City.
Akashic
Political twins — media markets
The media markets whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
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Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/670/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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How did Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas voted Republican by 31.5 points (R+31.5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 364,496 votes cast, 120,225 went Democratic and 235,021 went Republican.
When did Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas?
Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas has a population of 931,100 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas?
Median household income in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas is $72,263 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 34 presidential elections in Fort Smith-Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas from 1892 to 2024. Of those, 17 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.
