Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 1992–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic28.8%664TrumpRepublican68.8%1,587OtherAll other candidates2.5%57
R+40.0
Lead
923
Total
2,308
vs nation
R+38.5
BidenDemocratic30.9%559TrumpRepublican66.9%1,211OtherAll other candidates2.2%39
R+36.0
Lead
652
Total
1,809
vs nation
R+40.5
ClintonDemocratic26.4%489TrumpRepublican68.3%1,264OtherAll other candidates5.3%99
R+41.8
Lead
775
Total
1,852
vs nation
R+43.9
ObamaDemocratic27.3%536RomneyRepublican70.2%1,379OtherAll other candidates2.5%50
R+42.9
Lead
843
Total
1,965
vs nation
R+46.8
ObamaDemocratic31.8%652McCainRepublican67.9%1,393OtherAll other candidates0.3%7
R+36.1
Lead
741
Total
2,052
vs nation
R+43.4
KerryDemocratic24.7%518BushRepublican73.6%1,545OtherAll other candidates1.7%35
R+49.0
Lead
1,027
Total
2,098
vs nation
R+46.5
ClintonDemocratic30.2%460DoleRepublican59.0%897OtherAll other candidates10.8%164
R+28.7
Lead
437
Total
1,521
vs nation
R+37.3
ClintonDemocratic29.9%431BushRepublican42.1%606OtherAll other candidates28.0%403
R+12.2
Lead
175
Total
1,440
vs nation
R+17.7
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
R+40.0MIT Election Lab
Population
4,3282024 5-year
Population density
429 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
10.1 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$130,3022024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
71.0%2024 5-year
Black
0.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
23.0%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+49.0 in 2004MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2008–20247 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
68.8%2,347 participants ÷ 3,412 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+20.5 ptsVolatile
Drop-off vs state
-5.5 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
48.3%–55.8%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
56.6%
33.8%
2008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
2,347
3,412 ± 457
68.8%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
1,177
3,481 ± 444
33.8%
Audited
E/D
1,836
3,383 ± 386
54.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
1,756
3,105 ± 271
56.6%
Audited
E/A
1,935
3,119 ± 297
62.0%
Audited
E/A
1,965
3,308
59.4%
Derived
—
2,052
2,274
90.2%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
presidential history
Party record book
Harbison Canyon, CA · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1992–2024 · 8 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
31.8%
652 votes · R+36.1
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 30.9%
Republican
George W. Bush2004
73.6%
1,545 votes · R+49.0
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · 70.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
664votes
28.8% of the vote · R+40.0
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 652 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
1,587votes
68.8% of the vote · R+40.0
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 1,545 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Bill Clinton1992
−17.7pts D vs U.S.
Place R+12.2 · U.S. D+5.6
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · −37.3 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
+46.8pts R vs U.S.
Place R+42.9 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · +46.5 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Harbison Canyon · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are San Diego County, California, the county containing Harbison Canyon — Harbison Canyon’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Harbison Canyon, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Harbison Canyon sits in the Cuyamaca foothills east of El Cajon, remaining unincorporated within San Diego County. Its small, semi-rural population has historically leaned conservative relative to the broader county, reflecting exurban settlement patterns common to inland foothill communities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 49.0 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 3.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 40.0 points.
A population of 4,328, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $130,302 describe the city.
In 2024, Harbison Canyon, California voted Republican by 40.0 points (R+40.0), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,308 votes cast, 664 went Democratic and 1,587 went Republican.
How many people live in Harbison Canyon, California?
Harbison Canyon, California has a population of 4,328 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harbison Canyon, California?
Median household income in Harbison Canyon, California is $130,302 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Harbison Canyon, California?
Akashic tracks 8 presidential elections in Harbison Canyon, California from 1992 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 8 went Republican.
