Valrico, Florida
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −36.0% |
| 2008 | −22.6% |
| 2012 | −24.5% |
| 2016 | −21.9% |
| 2020 | −17.9% |
| 2024 | −22.2% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 38.2%Harris8,239 | 60.4%Trump13,037 | 1.4% | R+22.2 | R+4.4 | R+20.8 | 21,577 | |
| R | 40.3%Biden9,217 | 58.2%Trump13,301 | 1.5% | R+17.9 | D+4.0 | R+22.3 | 22,863 | |
| R | 36.6%Clinton7,351 | 58.5%Trump11,749 | 5.0% | R+21.9 | D+2.6 | R+24.0 | 20,097 | |
| R | 37.2%Obama6,863 | 61.8%Romney11,385 | 1.0% | R+24.5 | R+1.9 | R+28.4 | 18,433 | |
| R | 38.3%Obama6,905 | 60.9%McCain10,987 | 0.8% | R+22.6 | D+13.3 | R+29.9 | 18,028 | |
| R | 31.7%Kerry5,897 | 67.7%Bush12,587 | 0.6% | R+36.0 | — | R+33.5 | 18,599 |
Valrico sits in eastern Hillsborough County, where rapid residential expansion has steadily added new voters to a historically Republican-leaning exurban corridor that analysts watch as a bellwether for suburban shift.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 36.0 points in 2004. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.2 points.
A population of 40,239, a 58% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $104,839 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bloomingdale and Lutz.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Valrico, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/1273700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.