Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the city’s overall result across 2004–2024, on current city boundaries.
President results by year
Vote totals, margins, and source status
HarrisDemocratic60.5%842TrumpRepublican38.4%534OtherAll other candidates1.1%16
D+22.1
Lead
308
Total
1,392
vs nation
D+23.6
BidenDemocratic63.1%946TrumpRepublican35.1%527OtherAll other candidates1.8%27
D+27.9
Lead
419
Total
1,500
vs nation
D+23.5
ClintonDemocratic54.4%617TrumpRepublican41.3%469OtherAll other candidates4.3%49
D+13.0
Lead
148
Total
1,135
vs nation
D+10.9
ObamaDemocratic51.4%330RomneyRepublican47.2%303OtherAll other candidates1.4%9
D+4.2
Lead
27
Total
642
vs nation
D+0.4
ObamaDemocratic57.8%677McCainRepublican41.0%480OtherAll other candidates1.2%14
D+16.8
Lead
197
Total
1,171
vs nation
D+9.6
KerryDemocratic55.5%620BushRepublican43.2%482OtherAll other candidates1.3%15
D+12.4
Lead
138
Total
1,117
vs nation
D+14.8
Key facts
2024 presidential margin
D+22.1MIT Election Lab
Population
2,7642024 5-year
Population density
261 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
Land area
10.6 sq miTIGER/Line
Median household income
$186,8752024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
86.4%2024 5-year
Black
0.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
10.4%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+27.9 in 2020MIT Election Lab
Participation
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
2024 turnout
62.5%1,398 participants ÷ 2,236 CVAP
2020→2022 drop-off
+41.0 ptsPresidential-dependent
Drop-off vs state
+19.3 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
Mechanical 2026
21.5%–41.7%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
0%20%40%60%80%100%
65.2%
58.3%
20042008201220162018202020222024
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
Cycle
Participants
CVAP
Turnout
Series
Quality
1,398
2,236 ± 394
62.5%
Audited
E/D
2022Mid
1,105
1,896 ± 458
58.3%
Audited
E/D
1,514
1,525 ± 385
99.3%
Audited
E/D
2018Mid
913
1,401 ± 234
65.2%
Audited
E/D
1,141
1,732 ± 241
65.9%
Audited
E/D
642
1,283
50.0%
Derived
—
1,171
1,284
91.2%
Derived
—
1,117
1,285 extrapolated
86.9%
Derived
—
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
2024: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 323/229.
2022: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 322/184.
2020: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 321/4.
2018: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 320/139.
2016: numerator source 160, denominator source 157; estimated total ballots; preferred-county:block-reference-presidential-or-cvap-weight:v2; allocation share 100.0%; series 319/133.
2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
presidential history
Party record book
Water Mill, NY · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
2004–2024 · 6 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
63.1%
946 votes · D+27.9
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 60.5%
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
47.2%
303 votes · D+4.2
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 43.2%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
946votes
63.1% of the vote · D+27.9
Runner-up · Kamala Harris, 2024 · 842 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
534votes
38.4% of the vote · D+22.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 527 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
+23.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+22.1 · U.S. R+1.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · +23.5 pts
Republican
Mitt Romney2012
−0.4pts R vs U.S.
Place D+4.2 · U.S. D+3.9
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · −9.6 pts
U.S. House elections · 2 House
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
Water Mill · which candidate this place backed in each party’s presidential nominating contest, cycle by cycle. A primary is a contest inside one party, so it has no Democratic–Republican margin and is not part of the general-election record above.
Akashic reports votes cast, not delegates awarded. The two can disagree: Clinton led the 2008 national primary popular vote by less than half a point and did not win the nomination.
Primary returns are published at county grain. The figures below are Suffolk County, New York, the county containing Water Mill — Water Mill’s own primary vote sits inside those totals and is not separately reported.
Presidential nominating contests in Water Mill, by party and cycle.
○no contest record — Akashic holds no result for that party and cycle here. It is not a claim that no contest was held. Telling apart a contest that was cancelled, one that went uncontested, and one simply not yet ingested needs a nominating-contest calendar, which is a separate ingest from results and does not exist yet.
Republican presidential primaries are not yet ingested — the Republican series runs from 1856 and is in scope. The row is kept so its absence is visible: a Democratic-only panel would otherwise read as though no one else held a contest.
Akashic carries 10 states for 2012 and 3 states for 2024. Cycles in which an incumbent president seeks renomination are thin by nature — few states run a contested primary — so a sparse column is politics, not a hole in the record.
County returns carry a leader and a lead over the runner-up, and nothing more. The full candidate field with vote shares is published at state grain — follow a cycle above to the state contest for it.
Water Mill's registered voter count swells each summer as second-home owners establish domicile, creating an electorate whose composition shifts measurably between odd- and even-year cycles.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 27.9 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 5.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 22.1 points.
A population of 2,764, a 86% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $186,875 describe the city.
In 2024, Water Mill, New York voted Democratic by 22.1 points (D+22.1), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 1,392 votes cast, 842 went Democratic and 534 went Republican.
How many people live in Water Mill, New York?
Water Mill, New York has a population of 2,764 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Water Mill, New York?
Median household income in Water Mill, New York is $186,875 — above the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Water Mill, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Water Mill, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 6 went Democratic and 0 went Republican.
