Clay County, Arkansas
Precinct data
Results by precinct
17 precincts · 4,967 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -01 - North St Francis01 - North St Francis | 201 | 777 | 21 | 999 | 20.1% | 77.8% | R+57.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -16 - Cleveland & N Kilgore16 - Cleveland & N Kilgore | 102 | 582 | 13 | 697 | 14.6% | 83.5% | R+68.9 |
| Precinct -02 - South St Francis02 - South St Francis | 114 | 427 | 11 | 552 | 20.7% | 77.4% | R+56.7 |
| Precinct -17 - Gleghorn & S Kilgore17 - Gleghorn & S Kilgore | 85 | 458 | 7 | 550 | 15.5% | 83.3% | R+67.8 |
| Precinct -04 - West Oak Bluff04 - West Oak Bluff | 112 | 298 | 6 | 416 | 26.9% | 71.6% | R+44.7 |
| Precinct -03 - E Oak Bluff & Blue Cane03 - E Oak Bluff & Blue Cane | 83 | 295 | 10 | 388 | 21.4% | 76.0% | R+54.6 |
| Precinct -06 - Bradshaw & Haywood06 - Bradshaw & Haywood | 26 | 192 | 3 | 221 | 11.8% | 86.9% | R+75.1 |
| Precinct -09 - Liddell & chalk Bluff09 - Liddell & chalk Bluff | 33 | 176 | 2 | 211 | 15.6% | 83.4% | R+67.8 |
| Precinct -11 - Pollard11 - Pollard | 32 | 167 | 5 | 204 | 15.7% | 81.9% | R+66.2 |
| Precinct -05 - Bennett & Lemmons05 - Bennett & Lemmons | 18 | 139 | 1 | 158 | 11.4% | 88.0% | R+76.6 |
| Precinct -10 - Payne & Swain10 - Payne & Swain | 16 | 95 | 3 | 114 | 14.0% | 83.3% | R+69.3 |
| Precinct -07 - Johnson07 - Johnson | 16 | 87 | 2 | 105 | 15.2% | 82.9% | R+67.6 |
| Precinct -12 - Brown & Carpenter12 - Brown & Carpenter | 32 | 69 | 3 | 104 | 30.8% | 66.3% | R+35.6 |
| Precinct -08 - Knob08 - Knob | 9 | 55 | 1 | 65 | 13.8% | 84.6% | R+70.8 |
| Precinct -13 - Cache & Wilson13 - Cache & Wilson | 11 | 54 | 0 | 65 | 16.9% | 83.1% | R+66.2 |
| Precinct -15 - Nelson15 - Nelson | 7 | 53 | 2 | 62 | 11.3% | 85.5% | R+74.2 |
| Precinct -14 - Clark14 - Clark | 10 | 44 | 2 | 56 | 17.9% | 78.6% | R+60.7 |
Presidential margin, 1892–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1892 | +41.2% |
| 1896 | +52.2% |
| 1900 | +30.9% |
| 1904 | +12.1% |
| 1908 | +19.5% |
| 1912 | +27.1% |
| 1916 | +33.4% |
| 1920 | +6.8% |
| 1924 | +12.7% |
| 1928 | +6.7% |
| 1932 | +64.8% |
| 1936 | +38.1% |
| 1940 | +23.3% |
| 1944 | +15.2% |
| 1948 | +38.5% |
| 1952 | +3.9% |
| 1956 | +16.0% |
| 1960 | −13.9% |
| 1964 | +24.1% |
| 1968 | −11.7% |
| 1972 | −38.8% |
| 1976 | +49.9% |
| 1980 | +12.2% |
| 1984 | −6.9% |
| 1988 | +10.8% |
| 1992 | +45.2% |
| 1996 | +39.8% |
| 2000 | +21.6% |
| 2004 | +8.3% |
| 2008 | −14.3% |
| 2012 | −29.1% |
| 2016 | −50.8% |
| 2020 | −60.3% |
| 2024 | −61.6% |
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | R | 17.8%698 | 78.6%3,080 | 3,917 |
| 2020 | R | 0.0%0 | 82.3%4,196 | 5,099 |
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 8,234 |
| 2020 | 8,028 |
| 2022 | 7,760 |
| 2024 | 7,671 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+78 net domestic migration · 2025
Net −829 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $39,412 in average income, against $56,607 for residents who stayed — 30% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+58.6 on average — 3.0 points more Democratic-leaning than Clay County, AR itself (R+61.6).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Greene County, AR72R+61.2
- Dunklin County, MO38R+61.8
- Randolph County, AR30R+63.7
- Craighead County, AR22R+37.4
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Greene County, AR103
- Craighead County, AR38
- Randolph County, AR21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −115 |
| 2012 | −74 |
| 2013 | −129 |
| 2014 | −105 |
| 2015 | −60 |
| 2016 | −83 |
| 2017 | −100 |
| 2018 | −48 |
| 2019 | −170 |
| 2021 | −75 |
| 2022 | +7 |
| 2023 | +28 |
| 2024 | +17 |
| 2025 | +78 |
Clay County's R+61.6 margin in 2024 places it among the most one-sided presidential counties in the state, reflecting the deep rural realignment that has reshaped the Mississippi Delta borderlands over the past two decades.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 64.8 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 61.6 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 61.6 points.
A population of 14,280, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $51,481 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Lawrence County and Marion County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Clay County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.