Sebastian County, Arkansas: Texan Right county. In 2024, voted R+38%. Republican peak: R+63 in 1972.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+38MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Texan RightAkashic typology
- Population
- 128,9002024 5-year
- Median household income
- $57,7902024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 68.0%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 16.0%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+59 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63 in 1972MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Crawford County, AR · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Sebastian CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Sebastian County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +25.3% |
| 1896 | +44.1% |
| 1900 | +36.6% |
| 1904 | +11.9% |
| 1908 | +17.2% |
| 1912 | +45.9% |
| 1916 | +46.3% |
| 1920 | +4.7% |
| 1924 | +19.4% |
| 1928 | −4.2% |
| 1932 | +58.6% |
| 1936 | +59.1% |
| 1940 | +45.3% |
| 1944 | +27.0% |
| 1948 | +24.3% |
| 1952 | −12.9% |
| 1956 | −15.4% |
| 1960 | −14.6% |
| 1964 | −12.0% |
| 1968 | −21.3% |
| 1972 | −62.6% |
| 1976 | −5.7% |
| 1980 | −36.0% |
| 1984 | −51.4% |
| 1988 | −42.8% |
| 1992 | −0.6% |
| 1996 | −2.7% |
| 2000 | −19.7% |
| 2004 | −24.5% |
| 2008 | −34.6% |
| 2012 | −37.1% |
| 2016 | −39.1% |
| 2020 | −35.4% |
| 2024 | −37.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 13,652 | 30,719 | 45,452 | ||
| R | 14,487 | 31,198 | 47,140 | ||
| R | 12,300 | 29,127 | 43,057 | ||
| R | 13,092 | 29,169 | 43,362 | ||
| R | 13,673 | 28,637 | 43,212 | ||
| R | 16,479 | 27,303 | 44,211 | ||
| R | 15,555 | 23,483 | 40,159 | ||
| R | 15,514 | 16,482 | 35,346 | ||
| R | 16,570 | 16,817 | 39,659 | ||
| R | 9,684 | 24,426 | 34,432 | ||
| R | 8,688 | 27,595 | 36,817 | ||
| R | 10,141 | 23,403 | 36,879 | ||
| R | 15,768 | 17,671 | 33,473 | ||
| R | 5,770 | 25,219 | 31,047 | ||
| R | 6,320 | 12,073 | 27,042 | ||
| R | 10,299 | 13,110 | 23,493 | ||
| R | 8,726 | 11,744 | 20,696 | ||
| R | 7,489 | 10,234 | 17,841 | ||
| R | 7,802 | 10,114 | 17,944 | ||
| D | 5,075 | 2,928 | 8,848 | ||
| D | 6,008 | 3,452 | 9,467 | ||
| D | 5,249 | 1,968 | 7,246 | ||
| D | 4,539 | 1,161 | 5,720 | ||
| D | 4,937 | 1,268 | 6,260 | ||
| R | 3,186 | 3,465 | 6,684 | ||
| D | 3,148 | 1,985 | 5,992 | ||
| D | 3,852 | 3,492 | 7,586 | ||
| D | 3,719 | 1,366 | 5,085 | ||
| D | 2,396 | 514 | 4,103 | ||
| D | 3,035 | 2,050 | 5,737 | ||
| D | 1,645 | 1,254 | 3,286 | ||
| D | 2,094 | 964 | 3,089 | ||
| D | 2,622 | 1,009 | 3,660 | ||
| D | 2,692 | 1,558 | 4,489 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
| — | — | — | — |
Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
11.7%
German
11.6%
Irish
10.7%
American
5.8%
Scottish
2.1%
French
1.9%
Italian
1.8%
African American
4.2%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.0 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$57,790
Sebastian County ranks near the middle of US counties.
Sebastian County$57,790
Arkansas$60,773
United States$80,734
Sebastian County ranks near the middle of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
16.0%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.5%
Working age (18–64)15.0%
Seniors (65+)12.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
84.2%
speak English only
Spanish11.6%
Asian & Pacific Islander3.4%
Other Indo-European0.7%
Other languages0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 37.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Sebastian County's population clusters around Fort Smith, the state's second-largest city, yet it still posts presidential margins exceeding 37 points for Republicans — suggesting urban concentration alone doesn't moderate partisan lean in this corner of the Ozark Plateau.
The Republican margin here reached sixty-three points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved two points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was thirty-eight points.
A population of 128,900, a 68% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $57,790 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Crawford County and Toombs County. A non-English-speaking share of 16% reflects a meaningful Latino presence that votes, here, with the Republican grain.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Sebastian County, Arkansas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/05131/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More texan right counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Sebastian County, Arkansas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Sebastian County, Arkansas voted Republican by 37.5 points (R+38), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 45,452 votes cast, 13,652 went Democratic and 30,719 went Republican.
What is Sebastian County, Arkansas's political typology?
Akashic places Sebastian County, Arkansas in the "Texan Right" typology — East Texas and the Piney Woods — solidly Republican, with a meaningful Latino presence. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 14 times, Republican 20 times, and other 0 times.
When did Sebastian County, Arkansas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Sebastian County, Arkansas voted Democratic was 1948.
How many people live in Sebastian County, Arkansas?
Sebastian County, Arkansas has a population of 128,900 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Sebastian County, Arkansas?
Median household income in Sebastian County, Arkansas is $57,790 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arkansas state median is $60,773.
What is the political history of Sebastian County, Arkansas?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Sebastian County, Arkansas from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 14 went Democratic and 20 went Republican. The county's typology — "Texan Right" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.