† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupSurpriseArizonaUnited States
German16.9%12.6%12.5%
English13.4%10.2%9.5%
Irish12.0%8.9%9.4%
Italian6.0%4.1%4.8%
American5.7%4.0%5.3%
Polish3.0%2.0%2.2%
French2.3%1.8%1.6%
Scottish2.3%1.7%1.3%
Mexican16.9%26.9%11.3%
Puerto Rican0.4%0.7%1.8%
Guatemalan0.3%0.4%0.5%
Spaniard0.3%0.5%—
Cuban0.3%0.3%0.7%
Salvadoran0.3%0.3%0.7%
Spanish0.3%0.4%—
African American†3.9%3.6%9.9%
African0.3%0.3%0.5%
Nigerian0.2%—0.2%
Asian Indian0.8%0.9%1.4%
Chinese0.5%0.6%1.3%
Filipino0.5%0.7%0.9%
Vietnamese0.3%0.4%0.6%
Korean0.2%0.3%0.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Surprise
Arizona
United States
Median age
41.4
39.3
39.1
Age 18–24
7.5%
9.5%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
22.2%
18.9%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Surprise
Arizona
United States
Median household income
$96,711
$79,964
$84,427
Poverty rate
8.6%
12.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
30.5%
33.5%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Surprise
Arizona
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
12.6%
25.8%
22.3%
Spanish
7.7%
19.3%
13.6%
Other Indo-European
1.1%
1.0%
2.0%
Religious landscape
Measure
Surprise
Arizona
United States
Catholic
—
21.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
10.5%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
55.8%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Surprise, Arizona
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
−21.8%
2008
−18.3%
2012
−23.5%
2016
−23.1%
2020
−18.6%
2024
−23.1%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
38.1%Harris30,814
61.1%Trump49,493
0.8%
R+23.1
R+4.4
R+21.6
80,958
R
40.0%Biden29,648
58.6%Trump43,448
1.4%
R+18.6
D+4.5
R+23.1
74,099
R
35.3%Clinton18,709
58.4%Trump30,944
6.2%
R+23.1
D+0.4
R+25.2
52,946
R
37.2%Obama16,860
60.7%Romney27,519
2.1%
R+23.5
R+5.2
R+27.4
45,324
R
40.2%Obama17,832
58.5%McCain25,940
1.2%
R+18.3
D+3.5
R+25.6
44,315
R
38.5%Kerry15,045
60.3%Bush23,577
1.3%
R+21.8
—
R+19.4
39,113
Surprise has nearly tripled in population since 2000, fueled by retirees and younger families relocating from out of state. That continuous in-migration makes voter registration patterns unusually fluid compared with more established Maricopa County cities.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 23.5 points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 4.4 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 23.1 points.
A population of 154,948, a 67% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,711 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Peoria and Gilbert.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Surprise, Arizona voted Republican by 23.1 points (R+23.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 80,958 votes cast, 30,814 went Democratic and 49,493 went Republican.
How many people live in Surprise, Arizona?
Surprise, Arizona has a population of 154,948 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Surprise, Arizona?
Median household income in Surprise, Arizona is $96,711 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Surprise, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Surprise, Arizona from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 6 went Republican.
