Carlton County, Minnesota: Heartland Swing county. In 2024, voted R+3%. Republican peak: R+65 in 1904.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+3MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Heartland SwingAkashic typology
- Population
- 36,5182024 5-year
- Median household income
- $80,5732024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 87.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 2.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 1.9%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+55 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+65 in 1904MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Mahoning County, OH · similarity 0.99
2024 results by precinct
2024 precinct map of Carlton CountyPrecinct-level 2024 presidential results for Carlton County, with each precinct boundary colored by Democratic-vs-Republican margin.
—
Margin—
Turnout—
Harris +50Trump +50
Real precinct boundaries. Hover for vote totals.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 1876 | No data |
| 1880 | No data |
| 1884 | No data |
| 1888 | No data |
| 1892 | +29.1% |
| 1896 | −36.0% |
| 1900 | −40.1% |
| 1904 | −64.7% |
| 1908 | −41.1% |
| 1912 | +13.5% |
| 1916 | +0.7% |
| 1920 | −35.3% |
| 1924 | −45.0% |
| 1928 | −34.1% |
| 1932 | +3.2% |
| 1936 | +52.5% |
| 1940 | +35.2% |
| 1944 | +39.5% |
| 1948 | +41.6% |
| 1952 | +21.1% |
| 1956 | +21.7% |
| 1960 | +24.2% |
| 1964 | +54.8% |
| 1968 | +45.9% |
| 1972 | +13.1% |
| 1976 | +34.9% |
| 1980 | +27.4% |
| 1984 | +30.4% |
| 1988 | +30.7% |
| 1992 | +25.9% |
| 1996 | +28.9% |
| 2000 | +20.2% |
| 2004 | +26.3% |
| 2008 | +26.8% |
| 2012 | +26.1% |
| 2016 | +1.6% |
| 2020 | +1.5% |
| 2024 | −2.5% |
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 9,905 | 10,435 | 20,815 | ||
| D | 10,098 | 9,791 | 20,369 | ||
| D | 8,460 | 8,160 | 18,211 | ||
| D | 11,389 | 6,586 | 18,436 | ||
| D | 11,501 | 6,549 | 18,449 | ||
| D | 11,462 | 6,642 | 18,334 | ||
| D | 8,620 | 5,578 | 15,081 | ||
| D | 8,052 | 4,034 | 13,915 | ||
| D | 7,736 | 3,922 | 14,747 | ||
| D | 8,790 | 4,626 | 13,560 | ||
| D | 9,189 | 4,877 | 14,203 | ||
| D | 8,822 | 4,760 | 14,833 | ||
| D | 9,247 | 4,371 | 13,952 | ||
| D | 7,116 | 5,445 | 12,730 | ||
| D | 8,538 | 3,016 | 12,018 | ||
| D | 9,552 | 2,780 | 12,359 | ||
| D | 7,576 | 4,613 | 12,224 | ||
| D | 6,484 | 4,168 | 10,677 | ||
| D | 6,432 | 4,175 | 10,698 | ||
| D | 6,967 | 2,742 | 10,157 | ||
| D | 6,153 | 2,653 | 8,856 | ||
| D | 7,159 | 3,400 | 10,670 | ||
| D | 7,136 | 2,163 | 9,478 | ||
| D | 3,586 | 3,336 | 7,838 | ||
| R | 2,138 | 4,582 | 7,158 | ||
| R | 303 | 3,142 | 6,314 | ||
| R | 1,152 | 2,833 | 4,764 | ||
| D | 1,115 | 1,096 | 2,728 | ||
| O | 631 | 283 | 2,587 | ||
| R | 506 | 1,487 | 2,384 | ||
| R | 236 | 1,480 | 1,924 | ||
| R | 467 | 1,119 | 1,627 | ||
| R | 543 | 1,169 | 1,741 | ||
| D | 737 | 370 | 1,260 | ||
| — | — | — | — | ||
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Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.3%
Irish
9.8%
English
6.9%
Polish
6.2%
American
3.7%
Italian
3.4%
French
2.6%
African American
1.8%
Multiple ancestry combinations reported; no single grouping above 1%.
Sample size too small to break out by ancestry reliably.
American Indian, Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander combined.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$80,573
Carlton County ranks in the top 25% of US counties.
Carlton County$80,573
Minnesota$89,062
United States$80,734
Carlton County ranks in the top 25% of US counties by median household income.
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.9%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.7%
Working age (18–64)10.8%
Seniors (65+)13.4%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
96.4%
speak English only
Other languages1.3%
Spanish1.2%
Other Indo-European0.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Carlton County's economy was long anchored by paper mills and the Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, producing reliably Democratic margins. By 2024 it flipped narrowly Republican, a shift that mirrors working-class realignment across Minnesota's Iron Range corridor.
The Democratic margin here peaked at fifty-five points in 1964. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was three points.
A population of 36,518, a 88% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $80,573 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Mahoning County and Douglas County.
Most similar counties
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Carlton County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27017/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
More heartland swing counties
Frequently asked questions
How did Carlton County, Minnesota vote in 2024?
In 2024, Carlton County, Minnesota voted Republican by 2.5 points (R+3), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 20,815 votes cast, 9,905 went Democratic and 10,435 went Republican.
What is Carlton County, Minnesota's political typology?
Akashic places Carlton County, Minnesota in the "Heartland Swing" typology — Industrial Midwest swing counties drifting steadily toward the Republican Party. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the county has voted Democratic 25 times, Republican 8 times, and other 1 times.
When did Carlton County, Minnesota last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Carlton County, Minnesota voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Carlton County, Minnesota?
Carlton County, Minnesota has a population of 36,518 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Carlton County, Minnesota?
Median household income in Carlton County, Minnesota is $80,573 — below the national median of $80,734. The Minnesota state median is $89,062.
What is the political history of Carlton County, Minnesota?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Carlton County, Minnesota from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 25 went Democratic and 8 went Republican. The county's typology — "Heartland Swing" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.