- Lead
- 7,622
- Total
- 90,140
- vs nation
- R+7.0
- Turnout
- 82.6%
Scott County, MN
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 82.6% of 109,765 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 5,832
- Total
- 87,965
- vs nation
- R+11.1
- Turnout
- 85.8%
- Lead
- 11,446
- Total
- 75,029
- vs nation
- R+17.3
- Turnout
- 79.4%
- Lead
- 10,611
- Total
- 71,647
- vs nation
- R+18.7
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 7,516
- Total
- 67,132
- vs nation
- R+18.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 12,097
- Total
- 60,639
- vs nation
- R+17.5
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 6,451
- Total
- 43,793
- vs nation
- R+15.2
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,923
- Total
- 32,847
- vs nation
- R+2.7
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+8.5MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 154,5572024 5-year
- Population density
- 434 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 356 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $119,3142024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 75.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 6.1%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 6.4%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+61.9 in 1932MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+40.3 in 1920MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Carver County, MN · twin score 94.8
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
- 2024 turnout
- 82.6%90,658 participants ÷ 109,765 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +21.6 ptsPresidential-dependent
- Drop-off vs state
- +1.7 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 61.0%–65.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90,658 | 109,765 ± 1,090 | 82.6% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 68,288 | 106,434 ± 1,165 | 64.2% | Audited | A/A |
| 88,284 | 102,927 ± 982 | 85.8% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 66,700 | 98,453 ± 778 | 67.7% | Audited | A/A |
| 75,643 | 95,238 ± 687 | 79.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 71,647 | 87,020 | 82.3% | Derived | — | |
| 67,132 | 84,802 | 79.2% | Derived | — | |
| 60,639 | 82,584 extrapolated | 73.4% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Scott County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Scott County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Show all 7 candidates
Governor contest result
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Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 97 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
97 precincts · 90,141 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -BELLE PLAINEBELLE PLAINE | 1,418 | 2,707 | 78 | 4,203 | 33.7% | 64.4% | R+30.7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -ELKO NEW MARKETELKO NEW MARKET | 1,006 | 1,994 | 62 | 3,062 | 32.9% | 65.1% | R+32.3 |
| Precinct -NEW PRAGUE P-2NEW PRAGUE P-2 | 1,010 | 1,686 | 52 | 2,748 | 36.8% | 61.4% | R+24.6 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-5SAVAGE P-5 | 1,410 | 1,232 | 61 | 2,703 | 52.2% | 45.6% | D+6.6 |
| Precinct -NEW MARKET TWPNEW MARKET TWP | 828 | 1,701 | 45 | 2,574 | 32.2% | 66.1% | R+33.9 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-9SAVAGE P-9 | 1,423 | 1,077 | 63 | 2,563 | 55.5% | 42.0% | D+13.5 |
| Precinct -SPRING LAKE TWP P-1SPRING LAKE TWP P-1 | 796 | 1,714 | 39 | 2,549 | 31.2% | 67.2% | R+36.0 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-4SAVAGE P-4 | 1,350 | 1,056 | 74 | 2,480 | 54.4% | 42.6% | D+11.9 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-7PRIOR LAKE P-7 | 1,153 | 1,116 | 44 | 2,313 | 49.8% | 48.2% | D+1.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-12ASHAKOPEE P-12A | 1,174 | 1,055 | 69 | 2,298 | 51.1% | 45.9% | D+5.2 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-3SAVAGE P-3 | 1,150 | 1,030 | 87 | 2,267 | 50.7% | 45.4% | D+5.3 |
| Precinct -CREDIT RIVER P-2CREDIT RIVER P-2 | 700 | 1,484 | 44 | 2,228 | 31.4% | 66.6% | R+35.2 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-8PRIOR LAKE P-8 | 1,010 | 1,153 | 47 | 2,210 | 45.7% | 52.2% | R+6.5 |
| Precinct -CEDAR LAKE TWPCEDAR LAKE TWP | 629 | 1,527 | 35 | 2,191 | 28.7% | 69.7% | R+41.0 |
| Precinct -JORDAN P-1JORDAN P-1 | 841 | 1,295 | 52 | 2,188 | 38.4% | 59.2% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-1PRIOR LAKE P-1 | 893 | 1,173 | 48 | 2,114 | 42.2% | 55.5% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-3PRIOR LAKE P-3 | 987 | 1,057 | 57 | 2,101 | 47.0% | 50.3% | R+3.3 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-6SAVAGE P-6 | 999 | 1,054 | 47 | 2,100 | 47.6% | 50.2% | R+2.6 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-7SAVAGE P-7 | 1,099 | 912 | 60 | 2,071 | 53.1% | 44.0% | D+9.0 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-1SAVAGE P-1 | 1,038 | 880 | 68 | 1,986 | 52.3% | 44.3% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-06SHAKOPEE P-06 | 969 | 952 | 38 | 1,959 | 49.5% | 48.6% | D+0.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-01SHAKOPEE P-01 | 945 | 959 | 52 | 1,956 | 48.3% | 49.0% | R+0.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-5PRIOR LAKE P-5 | 849 | 1,024 | 41 | 1,914 | 44.4% | 53.5% | R+9.1 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-6PRIOR LAKE P-6 | 857 | 1,004 | 44 | 1,905 | 45.0% | 52.7% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-9PRIOR LAKE P-9 | 918 | 905 | 38 | 1,861 | 49.3% | 48.6% | D+0.7 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-08SHAKOPEE P-08 | 928 | 859 | 54 | 1,841 | 50.4% | 46.7% | D+3.7 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-2SAVAGE P-2 | 981 | 775 | 53 | 1,809 | 54.2% | 42.8% | D+11.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-05SHAKOPEE P-05 | 898 | 843 | 22 | 1,763 | 50.9% | 47.8% | D+3.1 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-09ASHAKOPEE P-09A | 807 | 911 | 28 | 1,746 | 46.2% | 52.2% | R+6.0 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-2PRIOR LAKE P-2 | 807 | 869 | 34 | 1,710 | 47.2% | 50.8% | R+3.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-04SHAKOPEE P-04 | 921 | 688 | 50 | 1,659 | 55.5% | 41.5% | D+14.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-14SHAKOPEE P-14 | 826 | 776 | 55 | 1,657 | 49.8% | 46.8% | D+3.0 |
| Precinct -PRIOR LAKE P-4PRIOR LAKE P-4 | 743 | 870 | 30 | 1,643 | 45.2% | 53.0% | R+7.7 |
| Precinct -JORDAN P-2JORDAN P-2 | 576 | 964 | 49 | 1,589 | 36.2% | 60.7% | R+24.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-02SHAKOPEE P-02 | 791 | 736 | 49 | 1,576 | 50.2% | 46.7% | D+3.5 |
| Precinct -CREDIT RIVER P-1CREDIT RIVER P-1 | 553 | 986 | 32 | 1,571 | 35.2% | 62.8% | R+27.6 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-07SHAKOPEE P-07 | 788 | 668 | 44 | 1,500 | 52.5% | 44.5% | D+8.0 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-10SHAKOPEE P-10 | 768 | 547 | 34 | 1,349 | 56.9% | 40.5% | D+16.4 |
| Precinct -HELENA TWPHELENA TWP | 355 | 867 | 30 | 1,252 | 28.4% | 69.2% | R+40.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-11SHAKOPEE P-11 | 622 | 574 | 24 | 1,220 | 51.0% | 47.0% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-03SHAKOPEE P-03 | 568 | 571 | 16 | 1,155 | 49.2% | 49.4% | R+0.3 |
| Precinct -SAVAGE P-8SAVAGE P-8 | 674 | 447 | 18 | 1,139 | 59.2% | 39.2% | D+19.9 |
| Precinct -SAND CREEK TWPSAND CREEK TWP | 310 | 649 | 16 | 975 | 31.8% | 66.6% | R+34.8 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-13SHAKOPEE P-13 | 515 | 349 | 26 | 890 | 57.9% | 39.2% | D+18.7 |
| Precinct -LOUISVILLE TWPLOUISVILLE TWP | 278 | 579 | 18 | 875 | 31.8% | 66.2% | R+34.4 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-12BSHAKOPEE P-12B | 413 | 290 | 22 | 725 | 57.0% | 40.0% | D+17.0 |
| Precinct -BELLE PLAINE TWPBELLE PLAINE TWP | 147 | 447 | 11 | 605 | 24.3% | 73.9% | R+49.6 |
| Precinct -JACKSON TWP P-2JACKSON TWP P-2 | 129 | 191 | 7 | 327 | 39.4% | 58.4% | R+19.0 |
| Precinct -ST LAWRENCE TWPST LAWRENCE TWP | 80 | 224 | 7 | 311 | 25.7% | 72.0% | R+46.3 |
| Precinct -JACKSON TWP P-1JACKSON TWP P-1 | 151 | 144 | 8 | 303 | 49.8% | 47.5% | D+2.3 |
| Precinct -BLAKELEY TWPBLAKELEY TWP | 68 | 218 | 5 | 291 | 23.4% | 74.9% | R+51.5 |
| Precinct -SHAKOPEE P-09BSHAKOPEE P-09B | 40 | 19 | 1 | 60 | 66.7% | 31.7% | D+35.0 |
| Precinct -SPRING LAKE TWP P-2SPRING LAKE TWP P-2 | 25 | 29 | 2 | 56 | 44.6% | 51.8% | R+7.1 |
| Belle Plaine Twp. Voting District27_271390010 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Belle Plaine Voting District27_271390005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Blakeley Twp. Voting District27_271390015 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cedar Lake Twp. Voting District27_271390020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Credit River Twp. Voting District27_271390025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Elko New Market Voting District27_271390037 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Helena Twp. Voting District27_271390040 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jackson Twp. Voting District27_271390045 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jordan P-127_271390050 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jordan P-227_271390055 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Louisville Twp. Voting District27_271390060 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Market Twp. Voting District27_271390070 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| New Prague P-227_271390075 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-127_271390080 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-227_271390084 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-327_271390090 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-427_271390091 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-527_271390092 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-6A27_271390093 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-6B27_271390094 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Prior Lake P-727_271390097 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Sand Creek Twp. Voting District27_271390100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-127_271390105 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-227_271390110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-327_271390111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-427_271390112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-527_271390113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-627_271390114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-727_271390116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Savage P-827_271390117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-127_271390119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-10 Voting District27_271390150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-1127_271390153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-1227_271390156 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-227_271390120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-327_271390125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-427_271390130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-527_271390135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-627_271390136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-727_271390137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-827_271390138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Shakopee P-927_271390145 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Spring Lake Twp. Voting District27_271390160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| St. Lawrence Twp. Voting District27_271390099 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Scott County, MN · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1892–2024 · 34 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
80.6%
4,878 votes · D+61.9
Runner-up · Al Smith, 1928 · 71.7%
Republican
Warren G. Harding1920
69.0%
3,015 votes · R+40.3
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2004 · 59.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Kamala Harris2024
40,214votes
44.6% of the vote · R+8.5
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 40,040 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
47,836votes
53.1% of the vote · R+8.5
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 45,872 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Al Smith1928
+61.1pts D vs U.S.
Place D+43.6 · U.S. R+17.5
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · +44.1 pts
Republican
Wendell Willkie1940
+28.5pts R vs U.S.
Place R+18.6 · U.S. D+9.9
Runner-up · Mitt Romney, 2012 · +18.7 pts
Current officeholders
Seats representing Scott County, MN. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 4 state senate and 5 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 49.8%42,660 | 50.2%43,078 | 85,738 |
| 2020 | R | 43.5%35,050 | 56.5%45,444 | 80,494 |
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 87,165 |
| 2018 | 87,823 |
| 2020 | 98,717 |
| 2022 | 97,876 |
| 2024 | 105,744 |
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+575 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +7,100 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $80,971 in average income, against $126,243 for residents who stayed — 36% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+19.7 on average — 28 points more Democratic-leaning than Scott County, MN itself (R+8.5).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Hennepin County, MN1,348D+42.4
- Dakota County, MN1,022D+12.8
- Carver County, MN249R+5.4
- Ramsey County, MN196D+43.1
- Le Sueur County, MN114R+33.6
- Rice County, MN93R+2.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Hennepin County, MN1,096
- Dakota County, MN964
- Carver County, MN341
- Ramsey County, MN176
- Le Sueur County, MN149
- Rice County, MN103
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +483 |
| 2012 | +946 |
| 2013 | +587 |
| 2014 | +353 |
| 2015 | +733 |
| 2016 | +548 |
| 2017 | +925 |
| 2018 | +413 |
| 2019 | +611 |
| 2021 | +1,066 |
| 2022 | +71 |
| 2023 | −64 |
| 2024 | −147 |
| 2025 | +575 |
Scott County sits in the fast-growing Twin Cities exurban ring, where rapid population growth and an influx of younger, college-educated residents have steadily compressed margins that once ran well into double digits for Republicans.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 61.9 points in 1932 and a Republican high of 40.3 points in 1920. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 8.5 points.
A population of 154,557, a 76% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $119,314 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Carver County and Washington County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Scott County, Minnesota. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/27139/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.