HarrisDemocratic38.5%6,510TrumpRepublican58.4%9,880KennedyIndependent2.1%352
R+19.9- Lead
- 3,370
- Total
- 16,910
- vs nation
- R+18.5
- Turnout
- 68.5%
Akashiccounty
Lake County, MT
Contests in this Place (77 available)
President26 · 1924–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1924–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 68.5% of 25,066 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic41.6%6,916TrumpRepublican56.1%9,322JorgensenLibertarian2.3%388
R+14.5- Lead
- 2,406
- Total
- 16,626
- vs nation
- R+18.9
- Turnout
- 73.5%
ClintonDemocratic36.2%4,776TrumpRepublican57.1%7,530JohnsonLibertarian4.1%534
R+20.9- Lead
- 2,754
- Total
- 13,181
- vs nation
- R+23.0
- Turnout
- 62.4%
ObamaDemocratic43.6%5,805RomneyRepublican53.6%7,135GRAYLibertarian2.7%364
R+10.0- Lead
- 1,330
- Total
- 13,304
- vs nation
- R+13.9
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic48.6%6,766McCainRepublican46.7%6,498OtherAll other candidates4.7%649
D+1.9- Lead
- 268
- Total
- 13,913
- vs nation
- R+5.3
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic39.4%4,960BushRepublican57.6%7,245OtherAll other candidates3.0%371
R+18.2- Lead
- 2,285
- Total
- 12,576
- vs nation
- R+15.7
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic33.9%3,884BushRepublican56.3%6,441NaderGreen6.7%762
R+22.3- Lead
- 2,557
- Total
- 11,448
- vs nation
- R+22.9
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic38.7%4,195DoleRepublican43.6%4,723PerotReform16.6%1,804
R+4.9- Lead
- 528
- Total
- 10,840
- vs nation
- R+13.4
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+19.9MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 32,5612024 5-year
- Population density
- 22 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,491 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $63,3602024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 64.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 0.2%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 4.3%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+28.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+31.3 in 1952MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Cascade County, MT · twin score 79.1
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 68.5%17,172 participants ÷ 25,066 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +17.4 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -1.8 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 51.1%–59.6%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17,172 | 25,066 ± 195 | 68.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 13,425 | 23,964 ± 205 | 56.0% | Audited | A/A |
| 16,820 | 22,894 ± 181 | 73.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 13,868 | 22,323 ± 173 | 62.1% | Audited | A/A |
| 13,626 | 21,839 ± 158 | 62.4% | Audited | A/A | |
| 13,304 | 21,341 | 62.3% | Derived | — | |
| 13,913 | 20,757 | 67.0% | Derived | — | |
| 12,576 | 20,173 extrapolated | 62.3% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Lake County only. The complete district District 1 result is shown below for comparison.
Lake County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
MATT RAINS0—
RUSSELL CLEVELAND0—
RYAN BUSSE0—
SAM FORSTAG0—
District District 1 result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 22 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
22 precincts · 16,910 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -POL 05POL 05 | 707 | 908 | 49 | 1,664 | 42.5% | 54.6% | R+12.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -RON 01RON 01 | 522 | 759 | 64 | 1,345 | 38.8% | 56.4% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -PAB 02PAB 02 | 466 | 650 | 45 | 1,161 | 40.1% | 56.0% | R+15.8 |
| Precinct -POL 06POL 06 | 456 | 594 | 47 | 1,097 | 41.6% | 54.1% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -STI 02STI 02 | 508 | 528 | 42 | 1,078 | 47.1% | 49.0% | R+1.9 |
| Precinct -ARL 01ARL 01 | 507 | 441 | 45 | 993 | 51.1% | 44.4% | D+6.6 |
| Precinct -FER 01FER 01 | 275 | 697 | 18 | 990 | 27.8% | 70.4% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -POL 03POL 03 | 293 | 667 | 29 | 989 | 29.6% | 67.4% | R+37.8 |
| Precinct -POL 04POL 04 | 363 | 424 | 25 | 812 | 44.7% | 52.2% | R+7.5 |
| Precinct -BEA 01BEA 01 | 321 | 448 | 16 | 785 | 40.9% | 57.1% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -CHA 01CHA 01 | 260 | 503 | 22 | 785 | 33.1% | 64.1% | R+31.0 |
| Precinct -POL 01POL 01 | 301 | 459 | 21 | 781 | 38.5% | 58.8% | R+20.2 |
| Precinct -RON 02RON 02 | 326 | 404 | 20 | 750 | 43.5% | 53.9% | R+10.4 |
| Precinct -DAY 01DAY 01 | 203 | 502 | 9 | 714 | 28.4% | 70.3% | R+41.9 |
| Precinct -STI 01STI 01 | 220 | 395 | 13 | 628 | 35.0% | 62.9% | R+27.9 |
| Precinct -POL 08POL 08 | 270 | 287 | 15 | 572 | 47.2% | 50.2% | R+3.0 |
| Precinct -PAB 01PAB 01 | 124 | 363 | 8 | 495 | 25.1% | 73.3% | R+48.3 |
| Precinct -POL 02POL 02 | 125 | 321 | 14 | 460 | 27.2% | 69.8% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -POL 07POL 07 | 161 | 232 | 10 | 403 | 40.0% | 57.6% | R+17.6 |
| Precinct -RON 03RON 03 | 42 | 120 | 5 | 167 | 25.1% | 71.9% | R+46.7 |
| Precinct -SWA 02SWA 02 | 36 | 108 | 2 | 146 | 24.7% | 74.0% | R+49.3 |
| Precinct -SWA 01SWA 01 | 24 | 70 | 1 | 95 | 25.3% | 73.7% | R+48.4 |
presidential history
Party record book
Lake County, MT · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1924–2024 · 26 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
61.6%
2,514 votes · D+28.2
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1936 · 60.1%
Republican
Dwight D. Eisenhower1952
65.1%
3,651 votes · R+31.3
Runner-up · Richard Nixon, 1972 · 62.1%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
6,916votes
41.6% of the vote · R+14.5
Runner-up · Barack Obama, 2008 · 6,766 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
9,880votes
58.4% of the vote · R+19.9
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 9,322 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1932
+10.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+28.2 · U.S. D+17.8
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +7.9 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2016
+23.0pts R vs U.S.
Place R+20.9 · U.S. D+2.1
Runner-up · George W. Bush, 2000 · +22.9 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
RMark NolandState Senate · 6
RGreg HertzState Senate · 7
DSusan WebberState Senate · 8
DJacinda MorigeauState Senate · 46
RTracy SharpState House · 12
RLinda RekstenState House · 13
DThedis CroweState House · 15
DShelly FyantState House · 91
Seats representing Lake County, MT. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 1 congressional, 4 state senate and 4 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
| Year | Total registered |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 18,799 |
| 2018 | 19,164 |
| 2020 | 20,673 |
| 2022 | 21,490 |
| 2024 | 22,617 |
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+90 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net +3,469 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $82,190 in average income, against $76,582 for residents who stayed — 7% higher. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+7.2 on average — 13 points more Democratic-leaning than Lake County, MT itself (R+19.9).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Missoula County, MT152D+21.4
- Flathead County, MT118R+33.8
- Gallatin County, MT23D+3.2
- Yellowstone County, MT23R+27.1
- Sanders County, MT21R+55.1
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Flathead County, MT125
- Missoula County, MT125
- Sanders County, MT22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | +101 |
| 2012 | −135 |
| 2013 | −79 |
| 2014 | −3 |
| 2015 | +171 |
| 2016 | +210 |
| 2017 | +474 |
| 2018 | −20 |
| 2019 | +261 |
| 2021 | +931 |
| 2022 | +763 |
| 2023 | +488 |
| 2024 | +217 |
| 2025 | +90 |
Lake County sits in the Northern Rockies. In 2024 it voted Republican.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 28.4 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 31.3 points in 1952. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 5.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 19.9 points.
A population of 32,561, a 65% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $63,360 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cascade County and Delaware County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Cascade County
Montana
79.1twin score
elasticity2008–2024 trajectory≠ median age
Delaware County
Indiana
73.1twin score
% unaffiliated2008–2024 trajectory≠ elasticity
Morgan County
Illinois
72.1twin score
elasticity2008 margin% Evangelical≠ % White
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Lake County, Montana. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/30047/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Lake County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Lake County, Montana vote in 2024?
In 2024, Lake County, Montana voted Republican by 19.9 points (R+19.9), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 16,910 votes cast, 6,510 went Democratic and 9,880 went Republican.
When did Lake County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Lake County, Montana voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Lake County, Montana?
Lake County, Montana has a population of 32,561 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Lake County, Montana?
Median household income in Lake County, Montana is $63,360 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Lake County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Lake County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 20 went Republican.