Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupPondera CountyMontanaUnited States
German27.3%22.9%12.5%
Irish8.9%13.5%9.4%
English7.4%13.1%9.5%
Norwegian7.2%7.5%—
Dutch6.0%——
American3.8%5.4%5.3%
Swedish1.7%1.4%—
French Canadian1.5%——
Blackfeet11.9%1.0%—
Oglala Sioux0.3%——
Mexican2.1%2.9%11.3%
Filipino0.6%—0.9%
Taiwanese0.2%——
Asian Indian0.1%—1.4%
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Pondera County
Montana
United States
Median age
42
40.8
39.1
Age 18–24
7.3%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
21.9%
20.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Pondera County
Montana
United States
Median household income
$52,338
$72,509
$84,427
Poverty rate
21.9%
11.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
20.1%
35.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Pondera County
Montana
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
10.8%
4.2%
22.3%
Spanish
1.6%
1.5%
13.6%
German or other West Germanic
8.1%
0.8%
0.5%
Religious landscape
Measure
Pondera County
Montana
United States
Catholic
27.8%
10.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
24.2%
13.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
40.3%
65.3%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Pondera County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
8 precincts · 2,852 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Pondera County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -CONRAD_24CONRAD_24
193
514
34
741
26.0%
69.4%
R+43.3
Precinct -CONRAD_27CONRAD_27
141
351
24
516
27.3%
68.0%
R+40.7
Precinct -CONRAD RURAL 29CONRAD RURAL 29
87
357
13
457
19.0%
78.1%
R+59.1
Precinct -VALIER_34VALIER_34
54
226
6
286
18.9%
79.0%
R+60.1
Precinct -VALIER (RURAL)_35VALIER (RURAL)_35
54
189
8
251
21.5%
75.3%
R+53.8
Precinct -BRADY_19BRADY_19
69
161
5
235
29.4%
68.5%
R+39.1
Precinct -HEART BUTTE_20HEART BUTTE_20
164
36
6
206
79.6%
17.5%
D+62.1
Precinct -DUPUYER_23DUPUYER_23
20
138
2
160
12.5%
86.3%
R+73.8
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1920–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1920
−28.7%
1924
−17.3%
1928
−16.6%
1932
+30.4%
1936
+53.0%
1940
+28.9%
1944
+23.6%
1948
+25.6%
1952
−15.8%
1956
−6.9%
1960
+6.5%
1964
+22.6%
1968
−13.2%
1972
−20.5%
1976
−8.0%
1980
−40.0%
1984
−36.2%
1988
−17.7%
1992
−6.5%
1996
−10.6%
2000
−39.9%
2004
−31.4%
2008
−12.7%
2012
−25.7%
2016
−39.0%
2020
−37.7%
2024
−41.7%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
27.4%Harris782
69.1%Trump1,972
2.3%Kennedy66 +2
R+41.7
R+4.1
R+40.3
2,852
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican69.1%1,972
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic27.4%782
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent2.3%66
Chase OliverLibertarian0.7%21
Jill SteinIndependent0.4%11
R
30.2%Biden903
67.8%Trump2,031
2.0%Jorgensen61
R+37.7
D+1.3
R+42.1
2,995
R
27.1%Clinton738
66.1%Trump1,799
5.0%Johnson135
R+39.0
R+13.3
R+41.1
2,723
R
35.9%Obama975
61.5%Romney1,673
2.6%GRAY71
R+25.7
R+13.0
R+29.5
2,719
R
42.4%Obama1,223
55.0%McCain1,588
2.6%
R+12.7
D+18.7
R+19.9
2,885
R
33.4%Kerry956
64.8%Bush1,853
1.8%
R+31.4
D+8.6
R+28.9
2,860
R
27.3%Gore792
67.3%Bush1,948
3.3%Nader96
R+39.9
R+29.3
R+40.4
2,896
R
37.9%Clinton1,123
48.5%Dole1,438
12.9%Perot383
R+10.6
R+4.1
R+19.2
2,963
R
33.0%Clinton1,046
39.6%Bush1,252
27.0%Perot855
R+6.5
D+11.2
R+12.1
3,165
R
40.0%Dukakis1,245
57.6%Bush1,795
2.4%
R+17.7
D+18.5
R+9.9
3,114
R
31.3%Mondale1,039
67.5%Reagan2,239
1.1%
R+36.2
D+3.8
R+18.0
3,316
R
26.1%Carter897
66.1%Reagan2,270
7.7%
R+40.0
R+32.0
R+30.3
3,432
R
44.9%Carter1,413
52.9%Ford1,666
2.3%
R+8.0
D+12.5
R+10.1
3,150
R
36.9%McGovern1,215
57.4%Nixon1,890
5.7%
R+20.5
R+7.3
D+2.6
3,292
R
39.8%Humphrey1,149
53.0%Nixon1,530
7.2%
R+13.2
R+35.8
R+12.5
2,888
D
61.1%Johnson1,759
38.6%Goldwater1,110
0.3%
D+22.6
D+16.1
±0.0
2,877
D
53.2%Kennedy1,653
46.8%Nixon1,452
0.0%
D+6.5
D+13.4
D+6.3
3,105
R
46.6%Stevenson1,438
53.4%Eisenhower1,651
0.0%
R+6.9
D+8.9
D+8.5
3,089
R
41.6%Stevenson1,246
57.5%Eisenhower1,719
0.9%
R+15.8
R+41.4
R+5.1
2,992
D
61.0%Truman1,555
35.4%Dewey902
3.6%
D+25.6
D+2.0
D+21.1
2,550
D
61.3%Roosevelt1,448
37.7%Dewey890
1.0%
D+23.6
R+5.3
D+16.1
2,361
D
63.7%Roosevelt1,899
34.8%Willkie1,038
1.4%
D+28.9
R+24.1
D+18.9
2,980
D
75.4%Roosevelt2,213
22.4%Landon658
2.1%
D+53.0
D+22.6
D+28.7
2,934
D
62.8%Roosevelt1,805
32.3%Hoover930
4.9%
D+30.4
D+47.1
D+12.6
2,875
R
41.3%Smith944
58.0%Hoover1,324
0.7%
R+16.6
D+0.6
D+0.8
2,283
O
20.4%Davis414
37.7%Coolidge764
41.9%La Follette849
La Follette +4.2
D+11.5
D+7.9
2,028
R
33.7%Cox893
62.5%Harding1,654
3.8%
R+28.7
—
R+2.6
2,647
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
35.5%1,017
62.9%1,804
2,866
2020
R
35.7%1,072
64.3%1,933
3,005
2018
R
43.8%1,176
52.6%1,413
2,685
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Pondera County, MT
Year
Total registered
2016
3,529
2018
3,637
2020
3,815
2022
3,772
2024
3,805
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+24 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −217 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $46,762 in average income, against $55,439 for residents who stayed — 16% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Cascade County, MT22
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Pondera County, MT in Pondera County, MT: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+12
2012
−52
2013
+48
2014
−74
2015
−72
2016
−77
2017
−88
2018
−42
2019
−82
2021
+140
2022
+60
2023
+13
2024
−27
2025
+24
Pondera's sparse, agriculture-driven economy and small population make it one of Montana's most lopsided presidential counties, delivering R+41.7 in 2024 against a backdrop of wheat farms and cattle range bordering the Blackfeet Reservation.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 53.0 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 41.7 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 4.1 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 41.7 points.
A population of 6,035, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $52,338 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Grant County and Shelby County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Pondera County, Montana voted Republican by 41.7 points (R+41.7), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,852 votes cast, 782 went Democratic and 1,972 went Republican.
When did Pondera County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Pondera County, Montana voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Pondera County, Montana?
Pondera County, Montana has a population of 6,035 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Pondera County, Montana?
Median household income in Pondera County, Montana is $52,338 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Pondera County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Pondera County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 7 went Democratic and 19 went Republican.
