Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupValley CountyMontanaUnited States
German21.6%22.9%12.5%
Norwegian19.2%7.5%—
American12.3%5.4%5.3%
Irish8.5%13.5%9.4%
English6.4%13.1%9.5%
Swedish4.8%1.4%—
Italian1.6%3.2%4.8%
French1.5%—1.6%
Mexican1.9%2.9%11.3%
Peruvian0.2%——
Spanish0.2%0.3%—
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Valley County
Montana
United States
Median age
44.3
40.8
39.1
Age 18–24
6.3%
9.1%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
24.5%
20.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Valley County
Montana
United States
Median household income
$71,695
$72,509
$84,427
Poverty rate
10.1%
11.5%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
25.7%
35.3%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Valley County
Montana
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
1.8%
4.2%
22.3%
Religious landscape
Measure
Valley County
Montana
United States
Catholic
6.4%
10.3%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
6.6%
13.6%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
71.8%
65.3%
51.5%
Mainline Protestant
11.2%
4.7%
5.2%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Valley County, Montana
Precinct data
Results by precinct
4 precincts · 4,079 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
Valley County precinct-level presidential election results for 2024
Precinct -PCT 34PCT 34
567
1,853
77
2,497
22.7%
74.2%
R+51.5
Precinct -PCT 33PCT 33
109
581
21
711
15.3%
81.7%
R+66.4
Precinct -PCT 31PCT 31
221
435
24
680
32.5%
64.0%
R+31.5
Precinct -PCT 32PCT 32
38
150
3
191
19.9%
78.5%
R+58.6
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1896–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
1896
+7.7%
1900
−21.5%
1904
−37.1%
1908
−23.8%
1912
+1.1%
1916
+28.8%
1920
−36.0%
1924
−34.8%
1928
−28.4%
1932
+30.7%
1936
+69.0%
1940
+36.7%
1944
+23.9%
1948
+28.2%
1952
−7.2%
1956
+3.2%
1960
+10.6%
1964
+18.6%
1968
−7.9%
1972
−23.1%
1976
−3.4%
1980
−32.3%
1984
−25.2%
1988
−6.5%
1992
+4.8%
1996
−3.9%
2000
−31.0%
2004
−26.0%
2008
−12.2%
2012
−24.7%
2016
−46.5%
2020
−49.4%
2024
−51.1%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
22.9%Harris935
74.0%Trump3,019
2.2%Kennedy89 +2
R+51.1
R+1.7
R+49.6
4,079
All 5 candidates in 2024 · 3 minor / independent
Donald J TrumpRepublican74.0%3,019
Kamala D HarrisDemocratic22.9%935
Robert F Kennedy Jr.Independent2.2%89
Chase OliverLibertarian0.5%19
Jill SteinIndependent0.4%17
R
24.2%Biden1,030
73.6%Trump3,135
2.3%Jorgensen96
R+49.4
R+2.9
R+53.9
4,261
R
22.8%Clinton886
69.3%Trump2,698
6.0%Johnson234
R+46.5
R+21.9
R+48.6
3,894
R
35.9%Obama1,385
60.6%Romney2,337
3.6%GRAY137
R+24.7
R+12.5
R+28.5
3,859
R
42.1%Obama1,645
54.2%McCain2,121
3.7%
R+12.2
D+13.8
R+19.4
3,911
R
35.6%Kerry1,431
61.6%Bush2,476
2.8%
R+26.0
D+5.0
R+23.6
4,018
R
32.1%Gore1,273
63.1%Bush2,500
2.6%Nader103
R+31.0
R+27.1
R+31.5
3,963
R
39.8%Clinton1,674
43.7%Dole1,838
15.3%Perot645
R+3.9
R+8.7
R+12.4
4,207
D
37.5%Clinton1,715
32.8%Bush1,497
28.9%Perot1,320
D+4.8
D+11.2
R+0.8
4,568
R
46.0%Dukakis2,163
52.4%Bush2,467
1.6%
R+6.5
D+18.8
D+1.3
4,706
R
36.6%Mondale1,849
61.9%Reagan3,123
1.5%
R+25.2
D+7.0
R+7.0
5,046
R
30.2%Carter1,567
62.5%Reagan3,242
7.3%
R+32.3
R+28.9
R+22.5
5,190
R
47.4%Carter2,352
50.8%Ford2,520
1.8%
R+3.4
D+19.7
R+5.5
4,959
R
36.9%McGovern1,973
60.0%Nixon3,210
3.1%
R+23.1
R+15.3
±0.0
5,348
R
41.6%Humphrey1,926
49.4%Nixon2,290
9.0%
R+7.9
R+26.5
R+7.2
4,632
D
59.2%Johnson3,032
40.5%Goldwater2,077
0.3%
D+18.6
D+8.0
R+3.9
5,125
D
55.2%Kennedy2,953
44.7%Nixon2,387
0.1%
D+10.6
D+7.4
D+10.4
5,346
D
51.6%Stevenson2,511
48.4%Eisenhower2,357
0.0%
D+3.2
D+10.3
D+18.6
4,868
R
46.1%Stevenson2,130
53.3%Eisenhower2,462
0.6%
R+7.2
R+35.4
D+3.6
4,621
D
61.7%Truman2,535
33.5%Dewey1,375
4.9%
D+28.2
D+4.4
D+23.7
4,110
D
61.3%Roosevelt2,196
37.4%Dewey1,341
1.3%
D+23.9
R+12.9
D+16.4
3,582
D
67.7%Roosevelt3,493
30.9%Willkie1,597
1.4%
D+36.7
R+32.2
D+26.8
5,162
D
83.1%Roosevelt5,862
14.1%Landon996
2.8%
D+69.0
D+38.2
D+44.7
7,057
D
61.1%Roosevelt2,499
30.4%Hoover1,242
8.6%
D+30.7
D+59.1
D+12.9
4,092
R
35.5%Smith1,294
63.9%Hoover2,330
0.7%
R+28.4
D+6.4
R+10.9
3,649
R
16.3%Davis497
51.1%Coolidge1,555
32.4%La Follette986
R+34.8
D+1.3
R+9.6
3,043
R
26.9%Cox895
62.9%Harding2,096
10.3%
R+36.0
R+64.8
R+9.8
3,333
D
61.1%Wilson2,102
32.3%Hughes1,111
6.7%
D+28.8
D+27.7
D+25.6
3,442
O
26.9%Wilson696
25.8%Taft668
47.2%
Roosevelt +20.3
D+24.9
R+18.5
2,585
R
35.3%Bryan503
59.1%Taft843
5.6%
R+23.8
D+13.3
R+14.3
1,426
R
30.6%Parker335
67.7%Roosevelt742
1.7%
R+37.1
R+15.6
R+17.5
1,096
R
39.0%Bryan234
60.5%McKinley363
0.5%
R+21.5
R+29.2
R+14.0
600
D
53.8%Bryan204
46.2%McKinley175
0.0%
D+7.7
—
D+13.7
379
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Congressional elections · 3 Senate races
U.S. Senate
Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Total
2024
R
31.9%1,307
65.3%2,672
4,093
2020
R
30.7%1,306
69.3%2,953
4,259
2018
R
39.8%1,545
55.0%2,137
3,882
voter registration
Registered voters
Total registered voters, over time
Registered voters
Voter registration in Valley County, MT
Year
Total registered
2016
4,845
2018
4,891
2020
5,117
2022
4,912
2024
5,185
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+33 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −115 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $43,736 in average income, against $73,041 for residents who stayed — 40% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
Where departures went households, 2022–23
Yellowstone County, MT30
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
Domestic migration in Valley County, MT in Valley County, MT: net domestic migration by year
Year
Net domestic migration
2011
+88
2012
+48
2013
+112
2014
+7
2015
−16
2016
−101
2017
−132
2018
−26
2019
−40
2021
+25
2022
−22
2023
−74
2024
−17
2025
+33
Valley County's sparse Hi-Line ranching economy anchors one of Montana's most Republican-leaning electorates, with the 2024 presidential margin exceeding 50 points in a county of fewer than 8,000 residents.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 69.0 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 51.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 1.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 51.1 points.
A population of 7,519, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $71,695 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Bottineau County and Roseau County.
Akashic
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Valley County, Montana voted Republican by 51.1 points (R+51.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 4,079 votes cast, 935 went Democratic and 3,019 went Republican.
When did Valley County, Montana last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Valley County, Montana voted Democratic was 1992.
How many people live in Valley County, Montana?
Valley County, Montana has a population of 7,519 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Valley County, Montana?
Median household income in Valley County, Montana is $71,695 — below the national median of $80,734. The Montana state median is $72,509.
What is the political history of Valley County, Montana?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Valley County, Montana from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 21 went Republican.
