HarrisDemocratic25.5%3,867TrumpRepublican73.6%11,177OliverLibertarian0.6%87
R+48.1- Lead
- 7,310
- Total
- 15,183
- vs nation
- R+46.7
- Turnout
- 53.5%
Akashiccounty
Graham County, AZ
Contests in this Place (82 available)
President29 · 1912–2024 · 3 mapped
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
The precinct map shows the 2024 presidential vote; the timeline scrubs the county’s overall result across 1912–2024.
President results by year
2024 turnout 53.5% of 28,622 citizens 18+
BidenDemocratic26.8%4,034TrumpRepublican71.5%10,749JorgensenLibertarian1.4%212
R+44.7- Lead
- 6,715
- Total
- 15,029
- vs nation
- R+49.1
- Turnout
- 54.9%
ClintonDemocratic26.9%3,301TrumpRepublican65.3%8,025OtherAll other candidates7.8%955
R+38.5- Lead
- 4,724
- Total
- 12,281
- vs nation
- R+40.6
- Turnout
- 48.3%
ObamaDemocratic30.3%3,609RomneyRepublican67.8%8,076JohnsonLibertarian1.2%142
R+37.5- Lead
- 4,467
- Total
- 11,905
- vs nation
- R+41.4
- Turnout
- —
ObamaDemocratic29.0%3,487McCainRepublican69.8%8,376OtherAll other candidates1.2%144
R+40.7- Lead
- 4,889
- Total
- 12,007
- vs nation
- R+48.0
- Turnout
- —
KerryDemocratic29.7%3,185BushRepublican69.7%7,467OtherAll other candidates0.6%68
R+39.9- Lead
- 4,282
- Total
- 10,720
- vs nation
- R+37.5
- Turnout
- —
GoreDemocratic34.7%3,355BushRepublican62.2%6,007NaderGreen1.5%144
R+27.4- Lead
- 2,652
- Total
- 9,664
- vs nation
- R+28.0
- Turnout
- —
ClintonDemocratic42.4%3,938DoleRepublican45.4%4,222PerotReform11.1%1,034
R+3.1- Lead
- 284
- Total
- 9,296
- vs nation
- R+11.6
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+48.1MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 39,2322024 5-year
- Population density
- 8.5 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 4,622 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $67,3252024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 52.7%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.6%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 30.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+65.4 in 1936MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+48.1 in 2024MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Liberty County, TX · twin score 82.0
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
2004–20248 cycles · 5 audited
- 2024 turnout
- 53.5%15,327 participants ÷ 28,622 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +15.5 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -1.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 38.0%–41.9%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Participation by cycle
Presidential Midterm Derived, pre-2016
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15,327 | 28,622 ± 334 | 53.5% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 11,006 | 27,942 ± 339 | 39.4% | Audited | A/A |
| 15,113 | 27,526 ± 233 | 54.9% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 10,786 | 26,648 ± 326 | 40.5% | Audited | A/A |
| 12,535 | 25,961 ± 286 | 48.3% | Audited | A/A | |
| 11,905 | 25,415 | 46.8% | Derived | — | |
| 12,007 | 24,239 | 49.5% | Derived | — | |
| 10,720 | 23,063 extrapolated | 46.5% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 306/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 42 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
42 precincts · 29,957 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -009 PIMA 9009 PIMA 9 | 306 | 1,925 | 2,273 | 4,504 | 6.8% | 42.7% | R+35.9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -007 THATCHER 7007 THATCHER 7 | 336 | 1,193 | 1,565 | 3,094 | 10.9% | 38.6% | R+27.7 |
| Precinct -015 SAFFORD 15015 SAFFORD 15 | 388 | 849 | 1,267 | 2,504 | 15.5% | 33.9% | R+18.4 |
| Precinct -002 SAFFORD 2002 SAFFORD 2 | 370 | 782 | 1,196 | 2,348 | 15.8% | 33.3% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct -005 LAYTON 5005 LAYTON 5 | 299 | 865 | 1,178 | 2,342 | 12.8% | 36.9% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct -018 JACKSON 18018 JACKSON 18 | 186 | 836 | 1,048 | 2,070 | 9.0% | 40.4% | R+31.4 |
| Precinct -019 DESERT HILLS 19019 DESERT HILLS 19 | 134 | 770 | 928 | 1,832 | 7.3% | 42.0% | R+34.7 |
| Precinct -001 SOLOMON 1001 SOLOMON 1 | 214 | 574 | 806 | 1,594 | 13.4% | 36.0% | R+22.6 |
| Precinct -006 THATCHER 6006 THATCHER 6 | 100 | 621 | 751 | 1,472 | 6.8% | 42.2% | R+35.4 |
| Precinct -011 BYLAS 11011 BYLAS 11 | 534 | 123 | 665 | 1,322 | 40.4% | 9.3% | D+31.1 |
| Precinct -020 ARTESIA 20020 ARTESIA 20 | 106 | 538 | 660 | 1,304 | 8.1% | 41.3% | R+33.1 |
| Precinct -003 SAFFORD 3003 SAFFORD 3 | 143 | 394 | 543 | 1,080 | 13.2% | 36.5% | R+23.2 |
| Precinct -008 CENTRAL 8008 CENTRAL 8 | 45 | 475 | 526 | 1,046 | 4.3% | 45.4% | R+41.1 |
| Precinct -016 PERIDOT 16016 PERIDOT 16 | 383 | 107 | 498 | 988 | 38.8% | 10.8% | D+27.9 |
| Precinct -004 LAYTON 4004 LAYTON 4 | 148 | 308 | 462 | 918 | 16.1% | 33.6% | R+17.4 |
| Precinct -014 THUNDERBIRD 14014 THUNDERBIRD 14 | 43 | 216 | 273 | 532 | 8.1% | 40.6% | R+32.5 |
| Precinct -017 CACTUS 17017 CACTUS 17 | 48 | 139 | 189 | 376 | 12.8% | 37.0% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct -010 FORT THOMAS 10010 FORT THOMAS 10 | 25 | 190 | 0 | 215 | 11.6% | 88.4% | R+76.7 |
| Precinct -013 BONITA 13013 BONITA 13 | 14 | 126 | 0 | 140 | 10.0% | 90.0% | R+80.0 |
| Precinct -021 QUATRO CERROS 21021 QUATRO CERROS 21 | 17 | 78 | 0 | 95 | 17.9% | 82.1% | R+64.2 |
| Precinct -012 KLONDYKE 12012 KLONDYKE 12 | 15 | 30 | 49 | 94 | 16.0% | 31.9% | R+16.0 |
| Precinct -023 FORT GRANT 23023 FORT GRANT 23 | 4 | 26 | 36 | 66 | 6.1% | 39.4% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -022 GILA RIVER 22022 GILA RIVER 22 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 21 | 42.9% | 57.1% | R+14.3 |
| Bonita 13 Voting District04_0400913 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Bylas 11 Voting District04_0400911 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Cactus 17 Voting District04_0400917 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Central 8 Voting District04_0400908 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Jackson 18 Voting District04_0400918 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Klondyke 12 Voting District04_0400912 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Layton 4 Voting District04_0400904 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Layton 5 Voting District04_0400905 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Peridot 16 Voting District04_0400916 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Pima 9 Voting District04_0400909 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Safford 15a Voting District04_0400915 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Safford 15b Voting District04_0400919 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Safford 2 Voting District04_0400902 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Safford 3 Voting District04_0400903 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Solomon 1 Voting District04_0400901 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thatcher 6 Voting District04_0400906 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thatcher 7 Voting District04_0400907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thomas 10 Voting District04_0400910 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Thunderbird 14 Voting District04_0400914 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Graham County, AZ · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Franklin D. Roosevelt1936
80.9%
3,541 votes · D+65.4
Runner-up · Franklin D. Roosevelt, 1932 · 79.1%
Republican
Donald Trump2024
73.6%
11,177 votes · R+48.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 71.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Joe Biden2020
4,034votes
26.8% of the vote · R+44.7
Runner-up · Bill Clinton, 1996 · 3,938 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
11,177votes
73.6% of the vote · R+48.1
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 10,749 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
Woodrow Wilson1916
+45.6pts D vs U.S.
Place D+48.7 · U.S. D+3.1
Runner-up · John W. Davis, 1924 · +43.1 pts
Republican
Donald Trump2020
+49.1pts R vs U.S.
Place R+44.7 · U.S. D+4.5
Runner-up · John McCain, 2008 · +48.0 pts
current representation
Current officeholders
DTheresa HatathlieState Senate · 6
RDavid GowanState Senate · 19
DMae PeshlakaiState House · 6
DMyron TsosieState House · 6
RGail GriffinState House · 19
RLupe DiazState House · 19
Seats representing Graham County, AZ. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 2 congressional, 2 state senate and 2 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
U.S. House elections · 3 House
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
voter registration
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Party registration · 2026R+31.5
Presidential vote · 2024R+48.1
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 17 points more Republican than the rolls.
20,375 registered voters · 2026
domestic migration
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
−228 net domestic migration · 2025
20112025
Net −192 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $58,452 in average income, against $69,039 for residents who stayed — 15% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean R+13.1 on average — 35 points more Democratic-leaning than Graham County, AZ itself (R+48.1).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Maricopa County, AZ155R+3.5
- Greenlee County, AZ72R+40.9
- Pima County, AZ67D+15.2
- Cochise County, AZ43R+23.1
- Pinal County, AZ32R+22.1
- Gila County, AZ23R+37.6
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Maricopa County, AZ135
- Pima County, AZ67
- Greenlee County, AZ65
- Cochise County, AZ37
- Gila County, AZ23
- Pinal County, AZ21
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −301 |
| 2012 | −394 |
| 2013 | +97 |
| 2014 | +243 |
| 2015 | −625 |
| 2016 | −372 |
| 2017 | −643 |
| 2018 | +302 |
| 2019 | +607 |
| 2021 | +194 |
| 2022 | −178 |
| 2023 | +602 |
| 2024 | +504 |
| 2025 | −228 |
Graham County's high desert terrain and small-town economy have produced presidential margins above R+40 in each of the past several cycles, making it a consistent outlier even within a state that has trended competitive at the statewide level.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 65.4 points in 1936 and a Republican high of 48.1 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 3.5 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 48.1 points.
A population of 39,232, a 53% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $67,325 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Liberty County and Jerome County.
Political twins — counties
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Liberty County
Texas
82.0twin score
elasticity2008 margin% Latino≠ % Evangelical
Jerome County
Idaho
79.6twin score
2008 marginmedian age% Latino≠ elasticity
Clark County
Idaho
79.5twin score
elasticity% Latinomedian age≠ 2000 margin
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Graham County, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/04009/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
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Cities & towns in Graham County
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Frequently asked questions
How did Graham County, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Graham County, Arizona voted Republican by 48.1 points (R+48.1), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 15,183 votes cast, 3,867 went Democratic and 11,177 went Republican.
When did Graham County, Arizona last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Graham County, Arizona voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Graham County, Arizona?
Graham County, Arizona has a population of 39,232 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Graham County, Arizona?
Median household income in Graham County, Arizona is $67,325 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Graham County, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Graham County, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 12 went Democratic and 17 went Republican.