San Tan Valley, Arizona
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −22.2% |
| 2008 | −21.1% |
| 2012 | −26.1% |
| 2016 | −28.6% |
| 2020 | −26.4% |
| 2024 | −31.5% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 33.8%Harris17,624 | 65.2%Trump34,047 | 1.0% | R+31.5 | R+5.0 | R+30.0 | 52,219 | |
| R | 35.9%Biden16,005 | 62.4%Trump27,765 | 1.7% | R+26.4 | D+2.2 | R+30.9 | 44,521 | |
| R | 31.5%Clinton8,765 | 60.2%Trump16,724 | 8.3% | R+28.6 | R+2.6 | R+30.7 | 27,791 | |
| R | 35.9%Obama7,661 | 62.0%Romney13,218 | 2.1% | R+26.1 | R+5.0 | R+29.9 | 21,330 | |
| R | 38.7%Obama7,445 | 59.8%McCain11,509 | 1.6% | R+21.1 | D+1.1 | R+28.4 | 19,259 | |
| R | 38.1%Kerry4,553 | 60.3%Bush7,202 | 1.6% | R+22.2 | — | R+19.7 | 11,947 |
San Tan Valley added roughly 40,000 residents in a decade, making it one of Arizona's fastest-expanding CDPs and a closely watched data point in the Phoenix exurban belt where margins in statewide races have tightened.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 31.5 points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 5.0 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 31.5 points.
A population of 109,189, a 63% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $96,713 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Yucaipa and Nampa.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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San Tan Valley, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0464210/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.