Vail, Arizona
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | −31.6% |
| 2008 | −32.2% |
| 2012 | −11.6% |
| 2016 | −29.4% |
| 2020 | −24.2% |
| 2024 | −24.0% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R | 37.5%Harris3,214 | 61.5%Trump5,275 | 1.0% | R+24.0 | D+0.1 | R+22.6 | 8,576 | |
| R | 37.1%Biden2,956 | 61.3%Trump4,880 | 1.6% | R+24.2 | D+5.2 | R+28.6 | 7,965 | |
| R | 31.6%Clinton1,917 | 61.0%Trump3,701 | 7.4% | R+29.4 | R+17.8 | R+31.5 | 6,069 | |
| R | 43.3%Obama2,158 | 54.9%Romney2,737 | 1.9% | R+11.6 | D+20.6 | R+15.5 | 4,988 | |
| R | 33.1%Obama1,448 | 65.3%McCain2,859 | 1.6% | R+32.2 | R+0.6 | R+39.5 | 4,376 | |
| R | 33.5%Kerry1,371 | 65.1%Bush2,666 | 1.4% | R+31.6 | — | R+29.2 | 4,095 |
Vail's population has surged with master-planned residential development southeast of Tucson, drawing younger families and shifting the demographic mix in ways that make it an increasingly competitive slice of Pima County.
Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of 32.2 points in 2008. The 2024 margin was 24.0 points.
A population of 16,315, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $130,904 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Rincon Valley and West Richland.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Vail, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/0478540/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.