† Citizen voting-age population estimated for prior cycles; 2004 predates the ACS and is extrapolated. Source: ACS 5-year, table B05003.
——
D+60R+60
20042024
Boundary by 2024 margin · Precinct returns · VEST · MIT Election Lab
People and households
Who lives here
Exact values for this place, its state, and the United States.
Race · ethnicity · ancestry
Communities and origins
GroupTonawandaNew YorkUnited States
German26.7%8.6%12.5%
Irish19.9%10.5%9.4%
Polish18.4%3.9%2.2%
Italian18.0%10.9%4.8%
English9.3%5.6%9.5%
American3.8%4.2%5.3%
French2.2%1.3%1.6%
Scottish1.8%—1.3%
Puerto Rican2.6%5.1%1.8%
Mexican0.6%2.5%11.3%
Dominican0.3%4.6%0.7%
Asian Indian0.5%1.9%1.4%
Bangladeshi0.4%0.6%—
Chinese0.3%3.6%1.3%
Burmese0.2%——
Hispanic or Latino counts residents of any race; the race groups count only their non-Hispanic residents, so the groups are mutually exclusive and sum to 100%. Expand a row to see ancestries reported within that group.
Age and life stage
Measure
Tonawanda
New York
United States
Median age
43.5
39.9
39.1
Age 18–24
6.0%
9.0%
9.2%
Age 65 and older
20.5%
18.0%
17.2%
Household economy
Measure
Tonawanda
New York
United States
Median household income
$58,326
$85,974
$84,427
Poverty rate
13.8%
14.0%
12.5%
Bachelor's degree or higher (25+)
28.5%
40.0%
35.6%
Languages at home
Measure
Tonawanda
New York
United States
Speaks a non-English language at home
7.3%
30.9%
22.3%
Russian, Polish, or other Slavic
1.4%
2.0%
0.7%
Other Indo-European
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Korean
1.1%
0.5%
0.3%
Religious landscape
Measure
Tonawanda
New York
United States
Catholic
—
30.8%
18.6%
Evangelical Protestant
—
5.1%
16.5%
Unclaimed / not counted
—
48.7%
51.5%
American Community Survey 2024 5-year (CVAP, income, age, poverty, education, language, race, ancestry) · presidential returns from MIT Election Lab through 2024 · 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB) — congregational adherents; unclaimed is the residual not counted by congregations.
Tonawanda, New York
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over time
Year
Margin (D minus R)
2004
+4.8%
2008
+7.6%
2012
+11.7%
2016
−10.5%
2020
+1.2%
2024
−1.4%
DemocraticRepublican
6 presidential elections
Third column names the leading third-party or independent finisher. Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024). Swing · margin change from the prior cycle. vs U.S. · margin relative to the national result that year. Third-party votes in 2012 are allocated from certified county totals by this place's share of each county's two-party vote — that cycle's precinct source records two-party splits. † 2004 sub-county results are estimated: the source's block-level detail for this cycle was unreliable — either county/municipality-level consolidated reporting (COVID-era) or a precinct-to-block allocation that misplaced votes — so the figures are allocated from the constituent county totals in proportion to the place and scaled to certified totals.
Year
Won
Democratic
Republican
Other
Margin
Swing
vs U.S.
Total
R
48.6%Harris3,643
50.0%Trump3,748
1.3%
R+1.4
R+2.7
D+0.1
7,492
D
49.5%Biden3,761
48.2%Trump3,666
2.3%
D+1.2
D+11.7
R+3.2
7,602
R
41.9%Clinton2,856
52.3%Trump3,570
5.8%
R+10.5
R+22.1
R+12.6
6,821
D
55.0%Obama3,573
43.3%Romney2,815
1.7%
D+11.7
D+4.1
D+7.8
6,500
D
52.7%Obama3,787
45.2%McCain3,244
2.1%
D+7.6
D+2.8
D+0.3
7,180
D
50.7%Kerry3,714
45.9%Bush3,363
3.5%
D+4.8
—
D+7.2
7,331
Tonawanda sits on the Niagara River just north of Buffalo, its population down roughly a third from mid-century peaks as manufacturing declined. Erie County's competitive margins tend to mirror closely here, making it a reliable bellwether for the region's working-class vote.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 11.7 points in 2012 and a Republican high of 10.5 points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.7 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 1.4 points.
A population of 15,030, a 90% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,326 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Depew and Lancaster.
Akashic
Political twins — cities
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
In 2024, Tonawanda, New York voted Republican by 1.4 points (R+1.4), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 7,492 votes cast, 3,643 went Democratic and 3,748 went Republican.
When did Tonawanda, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tonawanda, New York voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Tonawanda, New York?
Tonawanda, New York has a population of 15,030 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tonawanda, New York?
Median household income in Tonawanda, New York is $58,326 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Tonawanda, New York?
Akashic tracks 6 presidential elections in Tonawanda, New York from 2004 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 2 went Republican.
