Tonawanda Town, New York
Presidential margin, 2004–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2004 | +7.4% |
| 2008 | +10.4% |
| 2012 | +11.3% |
| 2016 | +2.6% |
| 2020 | +16.9% |
| 2024 | +14.0% |
| Year | Won | Democratic | Republican | Other | Margin | Swing | vs U.S. | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 56.4%Harris17,752 | 42.3%Trump13,336 | 1.3% | D+14.0 | R+2.9 | D+15.5 | 31,490 | |
| D | 57.4%Biden18,638 | 40.5%Trump13,148 | 2.0% | D+16.9 | D+14.4 | D+12.5 | 32,448 | |
| D | 48.7%Clinton14,275 | 46.1%Trump13,523 | 5.3% | D+2.6 | R+8.7 | D+0.5 | 29,340 | |
| D | 54.8%Obama15,891 | 43.5%Romney12,616 | 1.7% | D+11.3 | D+0.8 | D+7.4 | 29,009 | |
| D | 54.3%Obama17,195 | 43.9%McCain13,891 | 1.8% | D+10.4 | D+3.1 | D+3.2 | 31,646 | |
| D | 52.3%Kerry16,800 | 45.0%Bush14,431 | 2.7% | D+7.4 | — | D+9.8 | 32,100 |
Tonawanda Town CDP sits along the Niagara River corridor northwest of Buffalo, where a working-class industrial heritage and gradual demographic shifts have kept countywide races consistently competitive within single-digit margins.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 16.9 points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the city moved 2.9 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 14.0 points.
A population of 56,806, a 85% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,679 describe the city. The city's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Cheektowaga and West Seneca.
The cities whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
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Tonawanda Town, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/city/3675021/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.