- Lead
- 5,448
- Total
- 33,277
- vs nation
- R+14.9
- Turnout
- 58.7%
Valencia County, NM
▦ precinct · ▥ counties · ▢ no spatial detail
President margin by year
Place winner margin
President results by year
2024 turnout 58.7% of 56,880 citizens 18+
- Lead
- 3,101
- Total
- 32,277
- vs nation
- R+14.1
- Turnout
- 58.3%
- Lead
- 2,374
- Total
- 27,592
- vs nation
- R+10.7
- Turnout
- 51.8%
- Lead
- 686
- Total
- 27,728
- vs nation
- R+1.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 2,230
- Total
- 28,899
- vs nation
- D+0.4
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 3,204
- Total
- 26,012
- vs nation
- R+9.9
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 984
- Total
- 21,377
- vs nation
- R+5.1
- Turnout
- —
- Lead
- 1,390
- Total
- 18,545
- vs nation
- R+1.0
- Turnout
- —
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.4MIT Election Lab
- Population
- 78,4582024 5-year
- Population density
- 74 / sq mi2024 5-year · TIGER/Line
- Land area
- 1,067 sq miTIGER/Line
- Median household income
- $58,9332024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 30.5%2024 5-year
- Black
- 1.0%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 60.8%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+32.4 in 1964MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+63.1 in 1912MIT Election Lab
- Most similar
- Luna County, NM · twin score 93.9
Turnout and midterm durability
Participation measured against the same-year citizen voting-age population. Audited cycles count total general-election participants — ballots or participating voters, not presidential candidate votes. Cycles before 2016 predate that series and are derived from the certified presidential returns instead; they are marked everywhere they appear and are excluded from the figures below.
- 2024 turnout
- 58.7%33,410 participants ÷ 56,880 CVAP
- 2020→2022 drop-off
- +12.7 ptsVolatile
- Drop-off vs state
- -2.6 ptsPositive means a larger decline than the statewide pattern
- Mechanical 2026
- 46.1%–49.0%Recent-cycle and two-cycle persistence scenarios; not a forecast
Select a presidential cycle to show it on the map and results ledger above.
| Cycle | Participants | CVAP | Turnout | Series | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33,410 | 56,880 ± 889 | 58.7% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2022Mid | 25,463 | 55,825 ± 757 | 45.6% | Audited | C/A |
| 32,428 | 55,623 ± 732 | 58.3% | Audited | A/A | |
| 2018Mid | 24,485 | 54,490 ± 726 | 44.9% | Audited | A/A |
| 27,823 | 53,699 ± 739 | 51.8% | Audited | A/A | |
| 27,728 | 52,621 | 52.7% | Derived | — | |
| 28,899 | 49,054 | 58.9% | Derived | — | |
| 26,012 | 45,487 extrapolated | 57.2% | Derived | — |
Sources and methods
Audited cycles (2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024) count total general-election participants against the same-year CVAP special tabulation, each cell carrying its own numerator and denominator quality grade. Derived cycles (2004, 2008, 2012) come from the certified presidential returns on this page over the ACS 5-year CVAP series, so they measure presidential votes cast rather than ballots — a floor on participation. Where a derived cycle predates the ACS its denominator is extrapolated rather than read, and says so on its own line below. They are shown for the longer arc and are excluded from the drop-off, excess-drop-off, and 2026 scenario figures above.
- 2024: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 311/228.
- 2022: numerator source 159, denominator source 157; top ticket votes; canonical-complete-contest-floor-v1; allocation share 0.0%; series 154/183.
- 2020: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 301/2.
- 2018: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 297/138.
- 2016: numerator source 158, denominator source 157; total voters participating; eavs-f1a-v1:observed:native; allocation share 0.0%; series 293/111.
- 2012 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2008 (derived): Certified presidential returns · ACS 5-year CVAP (B05003); presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count.
- 2004 (derived): Certified presidential returns · extrapolated CVAP denominator; presidential votes cast — a floor on participation, not a ballot count; 2004 predates the ACS, so the denominator is a linear back-extrapolation from the 2008 and 2012 CVAP values, not a read figure.
Interactive election map
One map. Every available contest.
The map and local result cover Valencia County only. The complete contest result is shown below for comparison.
Valencia County result
0 precinct units · 0 candidate votes
Governor contest result
Loading the complete contest result…
Explore precinct resultsSearch, sort, compare years, or export CSV · 101 precincts
Precinct data
Results by precinct
101 precincts · 32,860 votes
Precinct boundaries and identifiers are cycle-specific. This table does not join rows across years without a validated crosswalk.
| Precinct -000042000042 | 438 | 621 | 9 | 1,068 | 41.0% | 58.1% | R+17.1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Precinct -000039000039 | 457 | 390 | 0 | 847 | 54.0% | 46.0% | D+7.9 |
| Precinct -000055000055 | 352 | 417 | 6 | 775 | 45.4% | 53.8% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -000007000007 | 281 | 461 | 10 | 752 | 37.4% | 61.3% | R+23.9 |
| Precinct -000057000057 | 262 | 475 | 6 | 743 | 35.3% | 63.9% | R+28.7 |
| Precinct -000038000038 | 289 | 417 | 6 | 712 | 40.6% | 58.6% | R+18.0 |
| Precinct -000048000048 | 324 | 376 | 7 | 707 | 45.8% | 53.2% | R+7.4 |
| Precinct -000027000027 | 283 | 402 | 7 | 692 | 40.9% | 58.1% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -000047000047 | 292 | 382 | 8 | 682 | 42.8% | 56.0% | R+13.2 |
| Precinct -000014000014 | 297 | 376 | 8 | 681 | 43.6% | 55.2% | R+11.6 |
| Precinct -000058000058 | 265 | 401 | 12 | 678 | 39.1% | 59.1% | R+20.1 |
| Precinct -000017000017 | 302 | 366 | 6 | 674 | 44.8% | 54.3% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -000012000012 | 238 | 413 | 0 | 651 | 36.6% | 63.4% | R+26.9 |
| Precinct -000021000021 | 312 | 313 | 8 | 633 | 49.3% | 49.4% | R+0.2 |
| Precinct -000011000011 | 179 | 445 | 0 | 624 | 28.7% | 71.3% | R+42.6 |
| Precinct -000018000018 | 242 | 373 | 7 | 622 | 38.9% | 60.0% | R+21.1 |
| Precinct -000022000022 | 251 | 350 | 10 | 611 | 41.1% | 57.3% | R+16.2 |
| Precinct -000060000060 | 255 | 345 | 6 | 606 | 42.1% | 56.9% | R+14.9 |
| Precinct -000009000009 | 221 | 371 | 0 | 592 | 37.3% | 62.7% | R+25.3 |
| Precinct -000005000005 | 202 | 369 | 6 | 577 | 35.0% | 64.0% | R+28.9 |
| Precinct -000062000062 | 251 | 324 | 0 | 575 | 43.7% | 56.3% | R+12.7 |
| Precinct -000030000030 | 201 | 368 | 0 | 569 | 35.3% | 64.7% | R+29.3 |
| Precinct -000003000003 | 244 | 310 | 0 | 554 | 44.0% | 56.0% | R+11.9 |
| Precinct -000041000041 | 275 | 274 | 0 | 549 | 50.1% | 49.9% | D+0.2 |
| Precinct -000019000019 | 165 | 369 | 0 | 534 | 30.9% | 69.1% | R+38.2 |
| Precinct -000023000023 | 247 | 271 | 6 | 524 | 47.1% | 51.7% | R+4.6 |
| Precinct -000061000061 | 196 | 321 | 0 | 517 | 37.9% | 62.1% | R+24.2 |
| Precinct -000065000065 | 203 | 306 | 0 | 509 | 39.9% | 60.1% | R+20.2 |
| Precinct -000043000043 | 228 | 276 | 0 | 504 | 45.2% | 54.8% | R+9.5 |
| Precinct -000010000010 | 192 | 301 | 10 | 503 | 38.2% | 59.8% | R+21.7 |
| Precinct -000054000054 | 207 | 276 | 6 | 489 | 42.3% | 56.4% | R+14.1 |
| Precinct -000006000006 | 204 | 284 | 0 | 488 | 41.8% | 58.2% | R+16.4 |
| Precinct -000004000004 | 199 | 287 | 0 | 486 | 40.9% | 59.1% | R+18.1 |
| Precinct -000029000029 | 206 | 260 | 9 | 475 | 43.4% | 54.7% | R+11.4 |
| Precinct -000064000064 | 185 | 289 | 0 | 474 | 39.0% | 61.0% | R+21.9 |
| Precinct -000032000032 | 182 | 290 | 0 | 472 | 38.6% | 61.4% | R+22.9 |
| Precinct -000035000035 | 154 | 312 | 6 | 472 | 32.6% | 66.1% | R+33.5 |
| Precinct -000046000046 | 171 | 294 | 0 | 465 | 36.8% | 63.2% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000052000052 | 179 | 274 | 7 | 460 | 38.9% | 59.6% | R+20.7 |
| Precinct -000031000031 | 159 | 300 | 0 | 459 | 34.6% | 65.4% | R+30.7 |
| Precinct -000053000053 | 150 | 282 | 8 | 440 | 34.1% | 64.1% | R+30.0 |
| Precinct -000045000045 | 186 | 242 | 6 | 434 | 42.9% | 55.8% | R+12.9 |
| Precinct -000037000037 | 170 | 258 | 0 | 428 | 39.7% | 60.3% | R+20.6 |
| Precinct -000059000059 | 160 | 266 | 0 | 426 | 37.6% | 62.4% | R+24.9 |
| Precinct -000049000049 | 155 | 267 | 0 | 422 | 36.7% | 63.3% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000015000015 | 164 | 254 | 0 | 418 | 39.2% | 60.8% | R+21.5 |
| Precinct -000056000056 | 214 | 198 | 0 | 412 | 51.9% | 48.1% | D+3.9 |
| Precinct -000008000008 | 165 | 237 | 0 | 402 | 41.0% | 59.0% | R+17.9 |
| Precinct -000044000044 | 182 | 219 | 0 | 401 | 45.4% | 54.6% | R+9.2 |
| Precinct -000025000025 | 167 | 215 | 0 | 382 | 43.7% | 56.3% | R+12.6 |
| Precinct -000051000051 | 161 | 221 | 0 | 382 | 42.1% | 57.9% | R+15.7 |
| Precinct -000040000040 | 162 | 206 | 8 | 376 | 43.1% | 54.8% | R+11.7 |
| Precinct -000002000002 | 166 | 202 | 0 | 368 | 45.1% | 54.9% | R+9.8 |
| Precinct -000036000036 | 129 | 230 | 0 | 359 | 35.9% | 64.1% | R+28.1 |
| Precinct -000016000016 | 155 | 184 | 6 | 345 | 44.9% | 53.3% | R+8.4 |
| Precinct -000013000013 | 228 | 114 | 0 | 342 | 66.7% | 33.3% | D+33.3 |
| Precinct -000028000028 | 167 | 159 | 0 | 326 | 51.2% | 48.8% | D+2.5 |
| Precinct -000033000033 | 132 | 187 | 0 | 319 | 41.4% | 58.6% | R+17.2 |
| Precinct -000026000026 | 138 | 145 | 0 | 283 | 48.8% | 51.2% | R+2.5 |
| Precinct -000034000034 | 105 | 177 | 0 | 282 | 37.2% | 62.8% | R+25.5 |
| Precinct -000063000063 | 89 | 178 | 0 | 267 | 33.3% | 66.7% | R+33.3 |
| Precinct -000066000066 | 122 | 145 | 0 | 267 | 45.7% | 54.3% | R+8.6 |
| Precinct -000020000020 | 79 | 136 | 0 | 215 | 36.7% | 63.3% | R+26.5 |
| Precinct -000001000001 | 87 | 124 | 0 | 211 | 41.2% | 58.8% | R+17.5 |
| Precinct -000050000050 | 89 | 86 | 0 | 175 | 50.9% | 49.1% | D+1.7 |
| Precinct -000024000024 | 97 | 76 | 0 | 173 | 56.1% | 43.9% | D+12.1 |
| Valencia County Precinct 135_350611 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1035_3506110 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1135_3506111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1235_3506112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1335_3506113 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1435_3506114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1535_3506115 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1635_3506116 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1735_3506117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1835_3506118 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 1935_3506119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 235_350612 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2035_3506120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2135_3506121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2335_3506123 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2535_3506125 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2635_3506126 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2735_3506127 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2835_3506128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 2935_3506129 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 335_350613 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3035_3506130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3135_3506131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3235_3506132 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3335_3506133 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3435_3506134 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3535_3506135 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3635_3506136 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 3735_3506137 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 435_350614 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 535_350615 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 635_350616 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 735_350617 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 835_350618 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
| Valencia County Precinct 935_350619 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | No votes |
presidential history
Party record book
Valencia County, NM · the strongest Democratic and Republican presidential performances recorded here, measured three ways.
1912–2024 · 29 presidential cycles
Highest vote share
Largest share of the presidential candidate vote cast here.
Democratic
Lyndon B. Johnson1964
66.0%
7,757 votes · D+32.4
Runner-up · John F. Kennedy, 1960 · 58.8%
Republican
Herbert Hoover1928
79.9%
3,500 votes · R+59.8
Runner-up · Charles E. Hughes, 1916 · 79.5%
Most votes
Largest number of votes cast for the party’s presidential nominee here.
Democratic
Barack Obama2008
15,366votes
53.2% of the vote · D+7.7
Runner-up · Joe Biden, 2020 · 14,263 votes
Republican
Donald Trump2024
19,057votes
57.3% of the vote · R+16.4
Runner-up · Donald Trump, 2020 · 17,364 votes
Best relative to the U.S.
This Place’s margin against the national margin in the same election — positive when it leaned toward the party more than the country did.
Democratic
John F. Kennedy1960
+17.5pts D vs U.S.
Place D+17.7 · U.S. D+0.2
Runner-up · Lyndon B. Johnson, 1964 · +9.8 pts
Republican
William H. Taft1912
+82.7pts R vs U.S.
Place R+63.1 · U.S. D+19.5
Runner-up · Charles E. Hughes, 1916 · +62.9 pts
Current officeholders
Seats representing Valencia County, NM. A county elects none of these itself — they are the members for the 2 congressional, 3 state senate and 3 state house districts it falls inside, so parts of the county are represented by different members.
Senate and governor results are in the Office selector at the top of this page.
U.S. House
Each row shows U.S. House votes counted inside this Place. “Vote lead” is the local lead here, not necessarily the winner of the full contest.
| Year | Vote lead | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | R | 44.3%14,417 | 55.7%18,121 | 32,538 |
| 2020 | R | 47.8%15,131 | 52.2%16,499 | 31,630 |
Registered voters
By party of registration, over time
Registration leans Republican; the presidential vote runs 12 points more Republican than the rolls.
50,233 registered voters · 2026
Who moves in and out
Net migration over time, and who arrivals are — where they came from and what those places vote
+1,128 net domestic migration · 2025
Net +2,977 over 2011–2025 · gain loss
Arrivals reported $54,633 in average income, against $60,624 for residents who stayed — 10% lower. (IRS SOI, 2022–23)
The places arrivals came from lean D+17.5 on average — 34 points more Democratic-leaning than Valencia County, NM itself (R+16.4).
Where arrivals came from lean of each source
- Bernalillo County, NM957D+21.0
- Sandoval County, NM104D+5.8
- Socorro County, NM78R+3.7
- Santa Fe County, NM49D+48.9
- Maricopa County, AZ41R+3.5
- Cibola County, NM37D+1.5
Where departures went households, 2022–23
- Bernalillo County, NM701
- Socorro County, NM62
- Sandoval County, NM61
- Maricopa County, AZ36
- Cibola County, NM31
- Doña Ana County, NM27
Migration is one input to a place’s political change, not its cause — a shift can also come from residents changing their minds, generational turnover, or turnout. These figures describe the places people moved between; they do not measure how any mover voted.
| Year | Net domestic migration |
|---|---|
| 2011 | −273 |
| 2012 | −549 |
| 2013 | −675 |
| 2014 | −773 |
| 2015 | −366 |
| 2016 | −196 |
| 2017 | +102 |
| 2018 | +316 |
| 2019 | +274 |
| 2021 | +937 |
| 2022 | +845 |
| 2023 | +847 |
| 2024 | +1,360 |
| 2025 | +1,128 |
Valencia County, anchored by Belen along the Rio Grande corridor south of Albuquerque, shifted from a reliably Democratic stronghold to an R+16 margin in 2024 — a swing driven largely by realignment among its majority-Hispanic working-class electorate.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of 32.4 points in 1964 and a Republican high of 63.1 points in 1912. Between 2020 and 2024 the county moved 6.8 points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was 16.4 points.
A population of 78,458, a 31% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $58,933 describe the county. The county's voting pattern over the last decade is most similar to that of Luna County and Cameron County.
The counties whose fingerprint — 2000–2024 trajectory, demographics, ancestry, religion — sits closest to this one, and why.
Twin score (0–100) = weighted cosine between tier-standardized fingerprints: presidential margins 2000–2024 with 12-yr trend and elasticity, ACS income, age, education, population and race, top reported ancestries, and religious adherence — chips name the closest-shared dimensions and the widest gap. Re-weight the groups in the twins explorer.
Browse places by community — income, education, race & ethnicity, language — all community cuts →
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Valencia County, New Mexico. Akashic. https://akashic.app/county/35061/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.